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The upcoming general elections in Indonesia will be the biggest
test for the country after a series of democratic innovations.
This, according to Dr Rizal Mallarangeng, director of the
Freedom Institute at Jakarta.
He was speaking at a Regional Outlook Forum, organised by
the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore today.
Indonesia has gone through several challenges in the last
four years. These
include the threat of separatism in different parts of the
country, terrorist attacks and the lingering economic crisis.
Following a series of democratic innovations, the Indonesian
Election this year is going to be the biggest test for the
country said Dr Rizal.
The election will stretch for 8 months.
Indonesians will go to the voting stands in April to elect
their Members of Parliament.
Thereafter in July, the first part of two Presidential Elections
will commence.
The final stage of the presidential elections will be held
in September and Indonesia will have a new president and government
by 20 Oct 2004.
So who's likely to win? Which political party and presidential
candidate is
currently riding high in the popularity stakes?
Dr. Rizal notes that the most interesting race right now
is not amongst the Islamic parties. Rather, it is a fight
between the two main political parties, PDIP and Golkar.
RM: Somewhere between July and Oct last year, 2003, Golkar
gained more support than the party of the President. If you
take the election today, Golkar
will win. Now you have to bear in mind, that there are 33%
undecided voters. But I bet it to be normal bell-shaped curve
where you divide amongst the rest of these parties.
In the presidential race, current leader President Megawati
Sukarnoputri is in the lead. The latest figures show she has
more than 16% of the popular votes. The other presidential
candidate who made headlines last year was Susilo Bamgbang
Yudhoyono, the four-star general who is also the nation's
current coordinator for political and security affairs. His
popularity rose significantly to nearly match that of President
Megawati in August last year.
Dr Rizal explains why.
RM: That was the time when Bangbang Yudhoyono appeared on
TV and defend Aceh, the terrorist. The policy on Aceh was
very popular. People felt that it was enough, there was too
much flip flop in Aceh. And people like that,
and because Megawati did not like to appear on TV, so it was
Bang Bang. And
when the hit fades away the support also fades away.
Elaborating on the current mood of the Indonesian voters,
Dr. Rizal pointed out that 34% of the population last year,
think that the country is going in the wrong direction with
their current policies. This is rather a big jump compared
to 13% ten years ago, in 1993.
RM: This is a rational call of the voters not to choose a
government that does not run the economy well.
In another national survey conducted by The Asia Foundation,
Dr. Rizal pointed out that 53 percent of the population wants
a strong leader like Soeharto who can make decisions and restore
order, even if it reduces rights and freedom.
RM: It doesn't mean that they want to go back to the old
days. They need strong and effective government. I read this
morning that Thaksin is the latest iron-fisted leader in Asia.
Maybe the people are dreaming of Thaksin or Mahathir. If we
can hire Lee Kuan Yew, we might hire Lee Kuan Yew.
(laughs)
Summing up, Dr. Rizal gave his personal prediction on the
results of the upcoming elections.
RM: Golkar will probably win but who's the next president.
But who's the next president. It depends on the party coalition.
If Megawati can persuade a Golkar's candidate to become the
vice-president, then they can create a winning ticket. Perhaps
by implication, they can create a very strong government because
they can control the executive and judiciary at the same time.
We're not gonna to see a divided government you need a strong
government a democratic one, to solve the remaining problems
faced by the country. The demand now is for stability and
consolidation. Old loyalties, secular parties nationalists,
they are still kicking. Of course, there are some slight changes.
Major parties in 1955, they were for Syriah states, now they're
for democratic secular states. This is good. But people begin
to appreciate more about - Hey we also need to see the performance
of the government
Dr, Rizal Mallarangeng, Director of the Freedom Institute
in Jakarta, speaking at the Regional Outlook Forum organised
by the Institute of South East Asian Studies on Wednesday,
7 January.
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