By: Dr Eric Teo
First published: 20 January 04, TODAY

This is surely an important election year in Asia, from South-east Asia to Taiwan and India.

Many incumbent leaders would be staking their hopes on re-election and continuity in office, although several surprises may upset their present calculations and careers, and perhaps surprisingly bring in new faces and personalities.

Judging from recent trends in Russia and Japan last year, election results would hinge more on the twin pillars of stability and economic benefits.

Electorates seem to yearn for political and social stability, as law and order appear as important considerations.

Moreover, voters want to be assured of economic benefits and social progress.

It is not just believing that their country will chalk up sound economic growth.

President Vladimir Putin has infused a dose of stability and economic upliftment in Russia.

His purges in the "high business world" and his tough stance on the Chechens may appear "dangerous" to Western and Russian liberals, but the Russian electorate in December 2003 was clearly impressed by his resolve to "act tough" on the law and order front and against corruption.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's electoral support was reduced in November 2003, thanks to what was perceived as "undelivered" economic reforms and benefits.

Japan's recovery came in a little too late probably to produce the "feel good" sentiment required to boost votes.

Furthermore, Mr Koizumi created political uncertainties, thanks to his close alignment to Washington and over the sensitive issue of sending Japanese Self-Defence Forces to Iraq, which the majority of Japanese people do not support.

Turning to 2004, insular South-east Asia will be facing major electoral battles in three countries, as well as later in Thailand in early 2005.

Although Prime Ministers Abdullah Badawi of Malaysia and Thaksin Shinawatra of Thailand appear certain of retaining their positions in the coming elections, the fates of Presidents Megawati Soekarnoputri of Indonesia and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo of the Philippines look uncertain.

The twin pillars of stability and economic benefits will help determine that Mr Abdullah's principal challenge is not just in winning the elections, but ensuring a higher margin of victory, as compared to the 1999 election results.

Mr Abdullah needs a sound victory to legitimise his premiership after succeeding Dr Mahathir Mohamed.

He would hope for a landslide victory for the Barisan Nasional (National Front coalition).

The Prime Minister could then assert his power and authority in Umno (United Malay National Organisation) at its June General Assembly.

Stability is a major election plank.

The terrorist threat and internal political squabbles (in both the principal Chinese and Malay parties) have been effectively contained.

The economy is booming at 5 per cent to 6 per cent, which augurs well for a sound electoral victory for Mr Abdullah and his new team in the coming months.
Indonesia's electoral results could be more difficult to predict.

Although Ms Megawati has given Indonesia a much-needed dose of stability after the tumultuous years of Mr BJ Habibie and Mr Abdurrahman Wahid, economic performance is still lacklustre with a growth of 3.5 per cent and economic benefits not appearing to percolate down to a broader segment of the population.

However, it is significant that certain quarters are already yearning for a stronger and tougher leader, probably even a military man.

Coordinating Minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a probable presidential candidate, saw his ratings skyrocketing after he implemented tough military policies in Aceh between August and October 2003.

Ms Megawati's chances of re-election are thus hinged on assuring the electorate that she could provide both stability as well as economic benefits.

Ms Arroyo's initial credentials, unlike those of Ms Megawati, were economic, as she, as an economist, had promised to deliver economic growth and equitable distribution to Filipinos.

Judging from this criterion, Ms Arroyo's chances do not seem promising, although she has done relatively well in securing some stability in her fight both for law and order and against terrorists and secessionists; this should score her some electoral points.

Nevertheless, the Philippines have an added presidential vote criterion, as glamour and glitz also play a predominant role and thus complicate Filipino politics.

Mr Thaksin is securing a strong mandate to continue governing Thailand, after having infused both stability (through law and order programmes and drastic drug "clean-ups") and sound economic benefits in the post-Asian crisis period.

Dubbed the "Superman of Thailand", he is changing the Thai polity and culture towards one of being a strong state and with discipline - much to the chagrin of liberals and democracy campaigners.

Taiwan and India offer an interesting contrast.

Taiwan President Chen Shui Bian hopes to be re-elected by challenging China openly and calling for the independence of Taiwan. The economy is recovering, thanks to the mainland's massive imports of Taiwanese goods, though uncertainties have also increased, thanks to Mr Chen's rhetoric.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee of India is using stability and peace with Pakistan to secure another electoral victory for his ruling coalition.

After the historic rapprochement at Islamabad during the recent Saarc regional forum, Indian elections could be called, probably six months ahead of schedule, once signs of some political breakthrough are detected in negotiations.

With a "new" stability in Indo-Pakistani relations, a booming economy and foreign reserves at a record US$100 billion, Mr Vajpayee is in a position to retain power, especially in the face of a weak Congress opposition today.

With crucial elections around the corner in Asia within the next 12 months, it is becoming clear that the twin pillars of stability and economic benefits to voters would be determinant.

However, electoral surprises are still possible.

Dr Eric Teo Chu Cheow, a corporate consultant based in Singapore, is also Council Secretary of the Singapore Institute of International Afairs (SIIA).