By: Michael Backman
First published: 5 February 04, TODAY

Indonesia faces constant instability and chaos without a strong-arm leader to suppress dissent and to hold the country together.

With 300 different ethnic groups and 365 distinct languages and dialects it is not so much a nation as it is a group of nations pushed together into one country.

Enormous wealth inequalities that are linked to race complete this recipe for instability.

But is relief in sight from the chaos? Not this year. It is an election year.

A new voting system means there will be not one country-wide election this year but at least two and almost certainly three.

Vote-buying has become rampant and corruption is as bad as ever.

No one party will achieve the majority of votes and no presidential candidate will either initially, meaning that whatever the outcome, most voters are assured of disappointment.

Almost all the major political parties have paramilitary wings and these can be expected to clash violently in the streets throughout the campaign periods.

Deaths are inevitable.

Indonesians are generally disillusioned with President Megawati Sukarnoputri's regime, though not necessarily with the President.

Her party is seen as corrupt and key officials more interested in getting re-elected than in running Indonesia.

Foreign business people confided in me recently that meetings even with certain economic ministers had become impossible to secure as they were occupied with politicking and political fund-raising.

Elections have not brought the people the reform that they hoped for and now they must face three.

The first will be on April 5 when almost 16,000 national, provincial and district legislature seats will be filled.

The next will be the presidential election on July 5, when Indonesians, for the first time, will vote directly for the president.

If, as is likely, no one candidate achieves a majority, then the two highest finalists will face a run-off national vote on Sept 20.

Essentially, this means that for most of this year the country will face widespread electoral uncertainty, many months of campaigning and an extended period of vote-buying.

The money that will change hands will be astronomic.

Golkar, the party founded by former president Suharto, and PDI-P, the party of incumbent Megawati, are and will remain the two biggest parties in the Parliament.

Last time, they earned 22.5 per cent and 33.8 per cent of the vote respectively.

Incumbency has become important in Indonesian politics, particularly because it allows for the means by which sufficient wealth can be accrued to buy enough votes to secure re-election.

But many are disappointed with the performance of PDI-P in government and there is a harking back to the old Suharto-Golkar days when at least there was stability.

So possibly, the votes for the two main parties might reverse, leaving Golkar as the biggest party in Parliament.

Megawati will be the PDI-P candidate for the presidency and she is more popular than her party.

She is expected to draw the most votes in the July 5 presidential poll but not a majority.

She will then be forced to a second election in September, which she may win.

That will leave Golkar supporters disappointed, particularly if their party does achieve the highest vote in the April elections.

That will present a situation for unrest.

That Megawati is the likely victor has a touch of the ridiculous.

Her leadership style is vacuous at best.

She never holds press conferences and almost never declares her thoughts on any issue.

"Conversations with government insiders suggest not only that she has very limited understanding of policy but also that she has little inclination to learn", said a December report on the coming elections prepared by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

What about the other candidates? The main alternative ought to be whomever Golkar nominates as its presidential candidate.

Among the front-runners is party chairman Akbar Tanjung.

There is also General Wiranto, the former armed forces commander.

Also, conglomerate owner Aburizal Bakrie, newspaper and television group Media Indonesia owner Surya Paloh and minister and conglomerate owner Jusuf Kalla.

Both Mr Jusuf and Mr Aburizal have Middle Eastern ancestral backgrounds.

Meanwhile, Mr Surya is a close associate and business partner of Suharto son Bambang Trihatmodjo.

Gen Wiranto was indicted by the United Nations for crimes against humanity in relation to East Timor. (Jakarta refused to hand Gen Wiranto over to the UN.)

And Mr Akbar Tanjung was convicted in a corruption case and given three years jail. He has appealed against the conviction.

What does all this mean for Singapore? Singapore might again see itself caught up in Indonesian internal politicking as it was last year in relation to the release of Indonesian trade data.

More Indonesian money will flow to Singapore ahead of a year of uncertainty.

Hotel rooms in Singapore in April, July and September could claim a premium as Indonesians of Chinese origin flee possible violence.

The hope in Singapore is for a stable Indonesia but whether that will be realised is left to be seen.

Michael Backman's next book, The Asian Insider: Unconventional Wisdom for Asian Business, will be published by Palgrave-Macmillan this April.