How will UMNO, under Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, do this time around?

Producer: Imelda Saad
First broadcast: 10 March 04, News Radio 93.8

As Malaysia gears up for snap elections in 10 days, the focus is on the Northern Malay states.

Dominant party UMNO had lost substantial votes in the last elections as the disenchanted Malay ground turned their support towards Islamic opposition party PAS.

In the final part of the series leading up to the polls, political reporter Imelda Saad picks out the states that'll likely see the fiercest contest.

All eyes will be on the Northern Malay states of Kelantan, Trengganu, Kedah, Pahang and Perlis.

Political observers say the scene is set for dominant party UMNO to try and regain seats lost during the last general elections in 1999.

Upsets and shockers marked the last polls, with hardline Islamic party PAS making the most gain.

It not only retained Kelantan, but also managed to wrest Trengganu from the ruling National Front.

5 years down the road, has UMNO, the coalition's dominant party regained the lost Malay ground?

Political observers Imelda Saad spoke with were mixed in their views.

Some like Professor Khoo Kay Khim from the University of Malaya says it's not impossible for the National Front to recapture Trengganu, "There is nothing about Party Islam in trengganu which is really that appealing to people. They have no leaders comparable to Chief Minister of Kelantan. Then the last time Barisan lost Trengganu, it was largely due to the fact that the ruling party had retained the same Chief Minister for over 20 years. And he was not performing. In fact, people there believe that if the Chief Minister had been changed before the last election, barisan will not have lost Trengganu."

The long-serving Chief Minister Wan Mokhtar Ahmad was said to be hugely unpopular with the electorate.

Divisional chiefs who've been around for years bore the brunt of anger from voters as they came to be identified with inertia and all that was wrong with a system that was said to be creaking under excess.

But since then, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has acted to drop the party's old guards.

The Trengganu Chief Minister was one of 4 entrenched divisional leaders who've been sacked when UMNO finalised its list of office bearers.

But despite these reforms some analysts reckon Trengganu will remain with PAS.

Professor Shamsul Amri Baharrudin from University Kebangsaan Malaysia says UMNO may be able to win back 4 or 5 lost seats but it'll be an uphill task capturing the majority.

He offers this somewhat controversial viewpoint - divisional UMNO members stand to gain millions from petroleum royalties, if the oil-rich state of Trengganu remains with the opposition.

Professor Shamsul Amri Baharrudin says, "What happens in UMNO is that during UMNO rule, all the petroleum royalty will go to UMNO, and the state government of Trengganu and they are distributed hierachically among the top and then it trickles down. But when PAS came into power, what happens is this money is not given to PAS but this was given to people in UMNO, under Federal projects. (So they stand to gain if PAS is still in power?) Definitely! Millions of dollars! So I think one of the counter-productive within UMNO itself is not PAS, I mean they would like to remain outside and gain something rather than become the ruling party and yet gain nothing at the local level and also at the divisional level. So it makes alot of sense for people at the bottom to do that."

Turning to Kelantan, an old-time stronghold of PAS, observers say no matter how confident the National Front may seem, the state will remain with the opposition party.

But it's a different story with Kedah.

The state is emerging as the scene of a major showdown between UMNO and PAS as the party seeks to make Kedah its third conquest.

Observers say the fight will be close.

In 1999, the National Front bagged 23 seats in the Kedah state assembly.

PAS won 12.

It was an even narrower margin for the parliamentary seats, as PAS captured 7 to the National Front's 8.

Analysts say PAS is a threat for UMNO in Kedah but they add that for the ruling party, it's all about re-capturing the seats lost in the last elections.

Prefessor Shamsul from University Kebangsaan Malaysia sums up their views, "Kedah, the parliamentary is almost 50-50, 7 and 8. 7 PAS, 8 UMNO. But in the state assembly, UMNO has won a little bit more than PAS, about 4 or 5 seats more, so what UMNO needs to do is to get back all the seats lost to PAS. Because traditionaly there are about 6, 7 PAS areas, they have to win it back. And in parliament, they also have to win back the 1 or 2 seats they have lost. So in Kedah, it's not about life and death, it's about getting back what it has lost."

With a sizeable Chinese population of about 30 percent, the stakes look good for the ruling front, as PAS pushes ahead with its blueprint for an Islamic state.

Observers add that so long as UMNO can prevent in-fighting within its party, Kedah shouldn't be a problem.

But as Professor Shamsul points out, internal factions is an entrenched problem within UMNO and it could fray the party's unity.

He cites the candidacy list as an example, "If you find these candidates, they are basically Kuala Lumpur-based candidates, there has been alot of struggle in UMNO over candidates. For example, in Kedah itself, there were 3 different lists submitted to the prime minister. The list submitted by the UMNO Central Committee. The list by the State Liason Party Committee, and their own grassroots level list. Now can you imagine, in 1 state there are 3 possible UMNO candidates voted by 3 different sections. So the question is, how could these sections come together? And this has got to do with something very local in some sense, if the situation is not that intense, then probably it's not going to be a problem. So this is what we have to look at and I think this is what people don't see what is happening in our country."

So just who are the people to watch out for?

From the opposition, there's former academic and famous faith-healer Harun Din.

Touted as PAS' electoral trump card, Dr Harun's oratory skills and religious credential is said to go down well with Malay voters in the northern state.

The drawback, Dr Harun is no seasoned politician, in fact, he pulled out his candidacy at the very last minute in the last polls.

There's also newly appointed Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak who as Education Minister in the last elections, won his seat by a slim margin of just over 200 votes.

Said to have lost touch with his constituents, observers say, Mr Najib has made amends over the past 5 years.

But the man with the most stakes in the upcoming polls has got to be Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi himself.

This being his first election as Prime Minister, Mr Abdullah will want a strong mandate from his people to carry out his future policies with confidence and conviction.