Can the ruling Barisan Nasional win back the state of Terengganu and regain the Malay votes?

Producer: Augustine Anthuvan
First broadcast: 11 March 04, Radio Singapore International

Malaysia will hold snap elections in 10 days time. Will the ruling Barisan Nasional be able to win back the state of Terengganu and regain the Malay
votes.

In the fourth part of our series leading up to the polls, Augustine Anthuvan of Radio Singapore International looks at the likely performance of the ruling National Front Coalition in the upcoming general election.

Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's multi-cultural Barisan Nasional
(BN) coalition is sure of victory in the March 21st election, but his own United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is seeking to turn back an Islamic tide sweeping the northern Malay heartland.

The large Chinese and Indian minorities, who make up around one-third of Malaysia's people, can do little more than look on as UMNO does battle with
Parti Islam se Malaysia (PAS).

So what will UMNO's strategy be? According to Professor Shamsul Amri
Baharrudin of University Kebangsaan Malaysia, who is also a keen observer of Malaysian politics, the main thrust in UMNO's party platform is likely to center on the economy.

SA: Well the platform is number one - economic. Basically rural development, rural agricultural revivalism, because Malaysians have been overwhelmed by Proton Saga, steel industry and what have you. But actually when the economic downturn took place in 1997, it was the oil palm and the rubber that saved the country. So I think Abdullah Badawi knows and economists don't want to highlight this because a lot of them are for industrialization because they can invest in a lot of share capital related industrial companies but not in agriculture. Agriculture is not a very fruitful investment. So I feel now that happens to be a very important platform because it also involves Malay votes in the rural areas. So because Malays voted in rural areas and they are in the rural context and
therefore I think revitalizing the agriculture economy in the country is a very important. And the other - what is most important is that about 80 percent of the country feels the most serious issue in this country is corruption. So Abdullah has been able to deal with this issue quite openly and squarely in less than 150 days of his rule and that's very impressive by world standards. So this has an impact in the everyday life and this everyday life impact is very critical in swinging the votes because everyone will ask themselves what do I gain from this new administration. So these are simple questions that everyday people will have to answer which will swing votes. Such is the pragmatic situation in Malaysia.

Political power in Malaysia rests firmly in Malay Muslim hands, but votes from smaller ethnic groups have become increasingly important because the Malay vote is divided between Prime Minister Abdullah's UMNO and the opposition PAS. In the Malay heartland, the states of Kelantan and Terengganu are under the control of PAS, and UMNO has but a slim majority in the state of Kedah. (UMNO regained the Pendang parliamentary seat in Kedah in the 2002 by-elections). So the stakes are high as Dr Joseph Liow (JL) at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies (IDSS) in Singapore points out.

JL: If Abdullah loses another state, say Kedah or Perlis, then it would definitely signal that his position is tenuous in UMNO with the forthcoming party elections. If that is the scenario then I think yes there might be a chance that he would be challenged. But statistically speaking, if he was to be able to regain some of the support lost to PAS in the previous election then I think it would work to his advantage.

Malay Muslims are split over PAS' call to turn what's been hailed as one of the Muslim world's most progressive countries into an Islamic state, complete with strict codes of conduct. But the prospect causes a lot of discomfort amongst non-Muslims, who feel their rights and traditions will be trampled on. That's where UMNO's multiethnic allies in the National Front coalition, including Chinese and Indian parties, come in.

The Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), is the second largest component
party in the ruling coalition. Together with the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) ? these two parties command a substantial minority vote. Dr Joseph Liow (JL), of IDSS on how the minorities are likely to vote.

JL: Well, one thing is quite clear and that is the post-September 11 mindset of the Malaysian electorate, and especially the non-Muslim electorate is one that is very suspicious of political Islam for a variety of reasons. And in the case of Malaysia, I think that the government's active attempt to associate PAS and the PAS agenda with for example the Taleban and with more fundamentalist strains of Islam that are in the political sphere in the world you see today, that has had a very strong impact on the mindset of the non-Malays. So that would be a determining factor in the voting trends for the non-Malay community in Malaysia.

One important factor in favour of the ruling National Front coalition is the fact that the once problem ridden MCA has since emerged to become more unified team. MCA's party leadership and ranks at one stage had split into Team A and Team B. But that issue has since been resolved, so much so that there are now signs of even closer cooperation between MCA and the smaller component party Gerakan. Professor Khoo Kay Khim of University of Malaya offers this assessment.

KK: "I think this time around MCA should fare better than before since the leadership has resolved a great deal of the problems faced by the previous two leaders Ling Liong Sik and Lim Ah Lek. The President and Vice President of MCA today, the President is Dr Ong Ka Ting and the Deputy President is Chan Kong Choy. Although they are not from the same part of the country, the president is from Perak and the deputy president is from Pahang, but they both graduated from the University of Malaya. And they appear to be able to get along very well with each other. And there has been no bickering since Datuk Ling stepped down and no bickering within the party. And with the Gerakan very anxious to work together with the MCA, I think the MCA will certainly fare very well in the coming election".

While no one doubts that Abdullah will get his two thirds majority, what he wants and needs is a very strong mandate not just from the Malays but from all Malaysians.

Because an overwhelming victory will signal not just the return of a strong UMNO but it'll also reinforce Abdullah's position that he is more than a one-term leader. As soon after the general election, probably just three months away will come his next big test - the UMNO party election.