Can Indonesia's PDI-P Stand Up Against Rival Golkar in Monday's Election?

Producer: Bharati Jagdish
First broadcast: 1 April 04, Radio Singapore International

Indonesia's political parties are hitting the campaign trail for one last day before Monday's parliamentary elections

Polls for local assemblies are also being held on the same day.

More than 147 million Indonesians are slated to vote in what observers say is a landmark election

The parliamentary election will help determine the candidates for the country's first direct presidential poll to be held on July 5th.

Opinion polls show the Golkar party in the lead as voters express disillusionment with the incumbent, Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P which has failed to bring economic stability to the country.

For more on PDI-P's chances against Golkar, Bharati Jagdish (BJ) spoke to political analyst, Dr Arief Budiman (AB) from the University of Melbourne in Australia.

AB: "It's true that PDI-P has failed to meet the expectations of many people, including its own party members, because of mistakes that have been committed. But I think the PDI-P's followers are quite fanatical about the party and the fact that Megawati is the daughter of Sukarno will lead the fanatical followers, and there are many, to stick to the PDI-P. Nevertheless, PDI-P will lose some of the votes, but not significantly. Golkar is a different party. Golkar is the most professional party compared to the other parties. But Golkar has a lot of problems because of its past association with Suharto. I think Golkar will certainly get more votes now than it did the last time, but I'm not sure of how many more."

BJ: You say that Golkar will have a lot of problems because of its association with Suharto, but Golkar has actually managed to put a positive spin on its association with Suharto, telling voters that if they want the social and economic stability of the Suharto era, Golkar is the party to vote for.

AB: "But Suharto is also associated with corruption and nepotism and Golkar's political rivals are quick to emphasise this. That's why when we talk about Suharto, most people have mixed feelings."

BJ: But do you think Indonesian voters might be willing to forgo certain things in order to achieve the economic stability that Golkar offers, the economic stability that PDI-P could not deliver?

AB: "Yes, I think there is a certain interest in that. In Indonesia now, there is a popular acronym floating about - SARS-"Saya Amat Rindu Suharto", which means "I miss Suharto very much". Of course, they do long for Suharto because of the social stability of those times. But essentially, they still have mixed feelings."

BJ: Golkar is promising economic and social stability, but just because the Golkar of the past, under Suharto, could bring about economic and social stability, does it necessarily mean that this new Golkar can do the same?

AB: "There is a possibility that they can do it because there are many professionals in Golkar now. They are seasoned politicians and also, many more technocrats are expected to join the party as well. So it is certainly possible for these people to bring about some real changes."

BJ: Let's go back to the PDI-P. You said that one of its merits is its association with Sukarno because Megawati is, after all, his daughter. But does the PDI-P have any other significant merits?

AB: "That is the first and most important merit - the fact that Megawati, who is the daughter of Sukarno, is the party's leader. The other merit is that the PDI-P is projecting itself as the victim of the New Order Regime. They were bullied, tortured and oppressed by Suharto's New Order Regime and because of this, they are saying they can emphatise with the people and bring justice to the people because they themselves know what it's like to be discriminated against and oppressed."

BJ: Justice, perhaps, but can it lift the economy, can it bring jobs to the people?

AB: "If you compare PDI-P's technical ability with Golkar's, you will find that Golkar is much better and also, in PDI-P, the relationship among its leaders and between its leaders and followers is quite feudal. The most important thing that binds them together is Megawati and Sukarno's ideologies. So in this sort of party, in which the main draw is sentimental ideology, it's very difficult to talk in a business-like manner. PDI-P will be less capable in terms of bringing about a sustainable economic recovery."

BJ: Now, most analysts say that neither party will be able to win an absolute majority and the winning party will have to form a coalition government. What would the ideal coalition government look like?

AB: "The most possible coalition will be an alliance of PDI-P and Golkar. The other parties which are still strong are the Islamic parties - Amien Rais's PAN (National Mandate Party) or Abdurrahman Wahid's PKB (National Awakening Party) or Hamzah Haz's PPP (United Development Party). A coalition consisting of both nationalist and Islamic parties is ideal for Indonesia."