By: Eric Teo
First published: 1 April 04, TODAY

There seems to be a disturbing trend in East Asia, with the huge controversy in the Taiwan presidential election and calls by opposition leaders for a recount in Malaysia after declaring the polls "unfair".

These events last month come just ahead of the Indonesian legislative elections on Monday and the Philippine general elections on May 10.

The Indonesian polls will be the first stage of a monumental process that will end in the first presidential election through universal suffrage - in two rounds in July and September.

The Taiwan controversy has raised eyebrows across Asia, not only for the tense cross-Straits relations, but also for the un-precedented massive protests and sit-ins throughout the past week by Kuomintang (KMT) supporters.

Two issues have emerged.

The Lien Chan-James Soong KMT-PFP team, which had lost to Democratic Progressive Party's Chen Shui-Bian, cried foul and demanded a recount.

Second, suspicions have been raised over the "assassination attempt" on President Chen and Vice-President Annette Lu on the eve of the polls.

Mr Chen had strongly denied any "set-up" to draw "sympathy votes", but there are lingering doubts.

The Malaysian polls have been less controversial after Barisan Nasional's landslide victory.

But the Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), which had been politically thrashed at the polls, is crying foul.

The opposition Parti Tindakan Demokratik (DAP) and Keadilan have joined PAS in proclaiming the polls "unfair".

Faced with a strong and swift protest, the commission has agreed to an independent enquiry.

But probably, no massive recount will follow, even though the opposition has raised the spectre, apparently bolstered by the Taiwanese demand.

It remains to be seen if the genie of recount once let out of the bottle can be put back, especially in the run up to the Indonesian and Philippine polls.

Could there be unrest in these countries?

The Indonesian polls, with 24 political parties competing, is mired in procedural complexities, which portend greater political controversies.

Even at this late hour, ballot papers and boxes are not ready.

The electoral commission (KPU) is believed to be planning to stagger the voting, which could add political fuel to eventual charges of fraud and vote-tempering.

Secondly, there are charges of corruption and vote-buying across the archipelago.

It is feared that any massive loss of Golkar votes could spark riots from its supporters against the ruling PDI-P over charges of vote-rigging or vote-buying.

Observers claim that these elections could be the "dirtiest" and most corrupt in Indonesian history.

Thirdly, the three weeks between the election and the official proclamation of results (on April 28) could be another factor of potential unrest.

In the Philippines, the combined presidential, congressional and local elections on May 10 could become equally explosive.

Controversy erupted when popular candidate Fernando Poe Jr (a close friend of deposed President Joseph Estrada) was accused of not being an eligible candidate, given his birth credentials.

But he has since been cleared by the High Court and is pressing ahead of incumbent Gloria Arroyo in recent straw polls.

Mud-slinging, violence, murder and death threats are part of the political drama in the Philippines.

Emotions are running high ahead of the contest to claim the presidency.

Fears of potential unrest in Indonesia - after both the legislative and presidential elections - and the Philippines can be attributed to three factors, keeping in view the Taiwan and Malaysia precedents.

Corruption, vote-rigging and fraud are charges we hear often in Indonesia and the Philippines.

These would automatically come to the fore during periods of political tension and controversy, which could be expected from the upcoming elections.

Secondly, the practice of democracy is weak in both countries.

Indonesia has had its first democratic legislative elections in 1999, whereas the Philippines resorted to "people's power", when the democratic process failed to resolve tension and feuds in 1986 and 2001.

The electoral process in both countries remains weak and perilous.

Lastly, and more importantly, institution-building is weak in both countries, especially in the electoral process.

It remains to be seen how impartial the electoral "watch-dogs" and the judiciary will be in mitigating charges of electoral wrong-doing and how the police and military will behave during the polls.

It is hoped that the situation will not head down the slippery road to electoral controversies and recounts.

Dr Eric Teo Chu Cheow, a business consultant and strategist, is the council secretary of Singapore Institute for International Affairs.