What is the likelihood of an effective coalition government between Golkar and the PDI-P?

Producer: Yvonne Gomez
First broadcast: 8 April 04, Radio Singapore International

Indonesia's top two secular parties are Golkar and President Megawati
Sukarnoputri's PDI-P.

There has been talk of a possible coalition government between the two parties, depending on the results of the April 5th election.

Given the personal ambitions of their leaders, and the different political platforms of Golkar and the PDI-P, is an effective coalition likely?

A question Yvonne Gomez posed to Professor Arief Budiman, Head of the
Indonesian Programme at the University of Melbourne.

AB: I think it's very likely because these are the two biggest parties, and both of them, so far, account for 40% of the votes. If they want to form a coalition with the smaller parties, it'll be more complicated, and also because the PDI-P and Golkar are secular nationalists, and most of the other relatively big parties are Muslim parties. So it's more convenient if Golkar and PDI-P work together. I think this will happen, despite what its leaders are saying.

YG: You've mentioned that they're both secular parties, but they are both riding on different platforms, and because they're riding on different platforms, how could a coalition between Golkar work? Can you go into some specifics?

AB: First of all, they're both selling themselves as reformation parties, so they're platforms are quite close. Compared to the Muslim parties, they may have different platforms. In the case of Golkar, and the PDI-P especially, they're both nationalist. They want to develop the economy based on foreign direct investment. In terms of politics, they will be a political democracy. Of course Golkar has a very ugly past, especially when Golkar was under the leadership of Suharto. That's why Golkar needs a big party to protect it. PDI-P needs Golkar's votes to strengthen the government. It certainly looks like these factors are pushing them to work together. rather than to fall apart.

YG: There could be some friction between Akbar Tandjung and Megawati
Sukarnoputri. What do you think personality differences like this could spell for the coalition?

AB: Megawati has made a statement that she may not want any negative impact
by choosing Akbar Tandjung and I think what she meant was the corruption charges against him. However, there is a possibility that Megawati will work with another Golkar leader, most likely Jusuf Kalla. Maybe the cooperation between PDI-P and Golkar will be through Jusuf Kalla. But Jusuf Kalla is not the main leader of Golkar. In order to make it possible, Jusuf Kalla has to work hard to dominate the Golkar party. Akbar still seems to be able to manipulate or control Golkar. But Golkar needs the PDI-P and the PDI-P needs Golkar, and that's what would make the coalition work.

YG: Reports have shown that many Indonesians yearn for firm leadership and
economic growth. Some have even gone as far as saying that they want the firm leadership of Suharto. How do you think the coalition government of Golkar and the PDI-P could achieve this?

AB: I think economic development is the most difficult thing to do, and I think no party can make a realistic promise that they'll be successful. In this case, i think Golkar and the PDI-P are the best parties among the other parties because both Golkar and PDI-P are acceptable to the Western powers. In order for Indonesia to develop its economy now, needs foreign assistance, especially from the IMF and the World Bank. We know that these two big financial institutions are controlled by the Western world, especially the US. So if Golkar and the PDI-P work together, I think there won't be a problem.