Will the clashes in Ambon affect the presidential candidates in Indonesia?

Producer: Yvonne Gomez
First broadcast: 27 April 04, Radio Singapore International

The recent violence in Ambon, the capital of Indonesia s Maluku province, over the weekend has shattered the 2002 government-sponsored peace pact.

The military s involvement in separatist violence of this kind in Indonesia is a cause for concern, especially with the number of ex-generals in the presidential race.

So how will the clashes in Ambon affect the individual campaigns of the different presidential candidates?

A question posed by Yvonne Gomez to Dr Tamrin Amal Tamagola, a sociologist from the University of Indonesia. Dr Tamrin is also a native Ambonese living in Jakarta.

TAT: I don t think it ll have much impact on the race, although some people have speculated that this violence was engineered by certain parties, in order to discredit Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla. But I don t think that there s enough evidence out there to prove this.

YG: Can you elaborate on that, like who would want to affect Yudhoyono s presidential campaign adversely?

TAT: Clearly, his rivals. It could be both General Wiranto or Megawati Sukarnoputri. But I think it s unlikely because both Wiranto and Yudhoyono have a stake in this presidential election so I think neither of them would jeopardize the peace, because of the coming election.

YG: In your opinion, which presidential candidate can best turn the problems in the Maluku islands to his or her advantage?

TAT: I think General Wiranto, most likely. If he s stirring up something in those islands, maybe, indirectly, he could discredit Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla, because the two of them are regarded as having been successful in putting off the conflict in Maluku.

YG: To what extent will current President Megawati Sukarnoputri s presidential campaign suffer from the fighting in Ambon?

TAT: I think her campaign has already suffered, even before the violence in Ambon. As you may have noticed, all the three big parties, Golkar, PDI-P and the Islamic political parties, suffered a big loss in the April 5 election. On the other hand, the new political parties, the Democrat Party and the Partai Keadilan Sejahtera benefited from the election.

YG: There are a number of retired generals running for president, like Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Wiranto. How do you think a President who is an ex-general, will tackle the kind of violence that takes place in Aceh, West Papua and Maluku?

TAT: Instinctively, generals have the tendency to deal with violence in a military way. But I think in state affairs, it not only depends on certain individuals but on the system within which any individuals will make decision. So while many generals may have the tendency to use military methods, I think the system which is empowered and improved since the time of Reformasi, is capable of keeping them in check, and reduce the possibility of using military methods to solve the problems in Aceh, in Maluku or Kalimantan.

YG: In that regard, is the fear of militarism justified?

TAT: I don t think so. I think the world has changed at an international level, but that very much depends on who is going to win the American general election. At the regional level, China is coming up as a big power on the regional political stage, and I think people will go in the direction of voting more for democratic parties and a market economy system.