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Analysis »

Taiwan recounts disputed presidential election ballots

Producer: Melanie Yip
First broadcast: 10 May 04, Radio Singapore International

In a bid to resolve political disputes that had triggered violent public protests, Taiwan began the recount of the presidential election ballots today.

Incumbent Chen Shui-Bian defeated opposition leader, Lien Chan by less than 30,000 votes in the March 20 presidential elections this year.

The Taiwanese High Court, which passed the recount decision, hopes the process will be completed before the president's inauguration, scheduled for May 20.

So, will the recount process be completed by the May 20 deadline?

A question Melanie Yip put to Taymin Liu (TL), President of the Asia Foundation based in Taiwan.

TL: We are not so sure, neither are most of the Taiwanese people sure that the recount process can be completed by May 19. If there are any questions on the ballot process that both parties cannot agree, especially on the validity of the ballots. Then there will be a committee or tribunal that will examine those counts, and come to a consensus as to what the decision should be, with regard to the validity of the ballot or how the invalid ballot should be treated.

The Taiwanese Central Election Commission has said that most invalid ballots were rejected because voters had marked their choices outside the designated squares. During this recount process, will there be any special arrangements or procedures to formally validate the ballot paper?

TL: There is a new regulation indicating what can be considered valid, and what cannot. But there were doubts in the first recount of the ballots. There was a question raised on the decision to handle the invalid ballots. The invalid ballots will only be reviewed if there are doubts to its validity.

So how likely will the results of the recount overturn President Chen Shui-Bian's initial victory?

TL: Nobody knows but the feeling is number one, no one knows, and number two, we are talking about tons of ballot papers being counted, and not 3,000 ballot papers. Some people are saying that there is no chance of Chen's victory being overturned. Others are still holding on to the hopes of the Pan-Blue party. It's hard to tell.

Opposition leader, Lien Chan mentioned in his second lawsuit, that the March 20 poll should have been postponed after the President was injured in the shoot out on March 19. In your opinion, would any election postponement make a difference in the presidential poll outcome?

TL: If the shoot out was involved, it's hard to tell what the outcome would be after the postponement. If we were to postpone the presidential election, there should be an independent committee to investigate what happened, and to search for evidence of foul play. And if there was evidence of foul play, who would win then? And which party was accused of foul play? The shoot out was totally unexpected by the Taiwanese people. And up till now, no one knows the truth. And there were allegations that the shoot out was staged by Pan-Green supporters, not necessarily by the Pan-Green Party. It's anybody's guess but nobody knows because there is no proof. Given that the shoot out incident had happen and the election is postponed, it is better to wait for the truth to be revealed. Otherwise, there is no way people can make a right decision to vote. Since the shoot out incident, election strategies adopted by both sides have caused the Taiwanese society, in recent months, to be very polarized. It seems to me that it is difficult for any particular person to be sitting on the fence in his party support. However, on the whole, many Taiwanese people are rational, even though they have their own opinions.

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