|
Philippines President Gloria Arroyo is running a tight race
in this year's presidential elections.
An exit survey by a major polling firm shows Mrs Arroyo leading
her rival, movie star Fernando Poe Jr, by 8 points in the
Manila region.
Would such a result give Arroyo a strong mandate to lead
the country over the next 6 years?
Melanie Yip put the question to Dr. Eduardo Gonzalez (EG),
President of the Development Academy of the Philippines.
EG:In any case, it would not depart much from the results
of the pre-election polls that President Gloria Macapagal
Arroyo would win the elections, maybe by 6-10% of the votes.
I suppose that will give her a significant margin to rule
the country without any trouble from the other political parties.
But if she is running a neck-and-neck race, then it would
be much harder for her to govern. I think when you refer back
to the other election which saw Fidel Ramos getting elected,
he also won by a small margin to begin with. So that meant
a weak mandate in the beginning, but he was able to govern
the country very well, in spite of that.
Why is Gloria Arroyo still the preferred presidential choice
among people in the Philippines, despite her track record
of insurgencies, huge debts and a weak economy?
EG:You can say that despite some of the weaknesses that Arroyo
has shown, she still had strong achievements in areas like
the economy. You might say that the Philippines economy is
weak during her term, the economy was able to post a 3-4%
growth rate per year, even though it is not much compared
to the Philippines' neighbors. But from our perspective, that
was good enough for someone who is not credited as a performer.
So what is your take on Fernando Poe Jr's performance so
far?
EG:Well, his performance so far is very good, for someone
who is new to the political arena. Of course, he is popular
as an actor. But as far as political experience is concerned,
he is a neophyte. So that is a commendable performance, as
far as going neck and neck with an incumbent, who has all
the resources at her command.
Reports indicate that either a narrow victory or a landslide
for Arroyo would present political risks, with a huge win
not seen as credible. What political risks would the outcome
of the election present to Arroyo?
EG:I suppose the present election system does not require
a huge margin (to win). In the first place, there are a number
of candidates running in this election so it would be impossible
to get a huge majority of votes. Instead, the winner may just
get a plurality. Even when Joseph Estrada won in 1998, he
had only 39-40% of the votes, which did not constitute a majority.
But it was a significant result for him because the next candidate
fared very much lower. When you look at the Philippines election
system, it is a first-past-the-post system, unlike the system
you see in France or other parts of Europe where there is
a run-off to make sure that the two candidates with the best
records will slug it out. And whoever wins will get majority
of the votes.
If and when Gloria Arroyo is re-elected for another 6-year
term as President of the Philippines, what areas would she
prioritize as her political strategies in governing the country?
EG:She said that she would push for reforms in the country.
Of course, the economy will be on top of the list. She also
said that she will continue campaigning to fight corruption
and her anti-poverty campaign is one of the top items in her
political agenda. I would imagine that if she's elected as
President, she does not have to be beholden to some of the
vested interests in this country. She will be able to push
for the changes she wanted.
|
UN envoy to hold talks in Maldives