Arroyo Leads In Philippine Presidential Race

Producer: Bharati Jagdish
First broadcast: 12 May 04, Radio Singapore International

A vote count in the Philippines will take weeks to confirm, but exit polls already show that incumbent, Gloria Arroyo, will win the presidential election.

A poll by the reputable Social Weather Stations or SWS, showed Mrs Arroyo getting about 41 percent of the vote with her closest rival, film star, Fernando Poe Junior getting 32 percent.

Other poll watchdogs like the reputedly reliable NAMFREL, show Poe leading by a few thousand votes.

For more on this, Bharati Jagdish (BJ) spoke to Professor John Avila (JA) from the University of Asia and Pacific in Manila.

JA: "The SWS exit poll is the most accurate one. During the last election, they more or less were able to predict the outcome. I would say the SWS one is most credible one. The NAMFREL poll would be more or less a parallel count to the official count and its final result would come much later. I would expect their final count to be almost the same as the SWS exit poll."

BJ: Now, the SWS poll indicates that Arroyo has about 41 percent of the vote and her closest rival, Fernando Poe has about 32 percent. Is this a commanding enough lead to lend more credibility to her leadership?

JA: "That's certainly a legitimate vote. It will legitimise her presidency. It is almost equal to the mandate given to previous president, Joseph Estrada who got about 40 percent of the vote in last presidential election. This would also be much more than what former president Ramos got when he became president. He only got 26 percent of the vote. Certainly, about a 40 percent of the electoral vote signifies a clear mandate for the next administration for the next six years."

BJ: If Arroyo is indeed officially declared the winner, what would you say were the factors that led to her victory?

JA: "I think she had the administrative resources at her disposal. That is a big factor. The incumbent has the advantage in most cases. The alternative candidates really did not present a coherent, organised alternative to the Arroyo candidacy."

BJ: Including Fernando Poe Jr?

JA: "Yes, including Fernando Poe Jr. He really did not present any substantive issues during the campaign. He did not substantiate his campaign. So, in a sense, for the electorate, he was really a poor choice to begin with. So most of them decided to go for the status quo, which means they would favour the incumbent."

BJ: I understand there is some anger about certain glitches that left at least two million people unable to vote. How far is this going to mar Arroyo's projected victory?

JA: "I don't think it's going to do so substantially because the glitches were not directed at any particular opposition party. They were really a result of errors on the part of the Election Commission way before the election. We're only now witnessing the outcome of that failed operation. They were trying to fix the electoral process and make it better. There were several initiatives that were really questionable to begin with. So really, the issues that are emerging now are symptomatic of, to put it harshly, the incompetence of the Election Commission, but the argument that the glitches were politically-driven to target the opposition has no grounds."

BJ: Arroyo's opponents are alleging widespread vote-buying and intimidation among other irregularities. Also, there had been, reportedly, more than 90 deaths during the campaigning period - deaths which are believed to be somehow linked. Is this going to become a serious issue?

JA: "I don't think so. These things are, sadly, almost always present in every election. But, they tend to be more locally-oriented. Philippine politics are very much a local event. Many of these disputes are disputes between candidates at the local level. They're not really symptomatic of disputes at the national level. I don't think either the opposition or the national government is orchestrating any of this."

BJ: Now, if she indeed wins, Arroyo will have a number of problems to tackle, among them, corruption, poverty, a debt-ridden economy and even a restive military. How successfully will she be able to fix these problems during her six-year term?

JA: "I think she can now more resolutely move towards reform and towards addressing many of these issues - more resolutely in comparison to the last three years - given that she would most likely have a strong mandate. Given the trends at the moment, she will also have a substantial control in both Houses of Congress. With that support, she should be able to, more easily, move reform efforts and reform measures through Congress and make them into law."