India's BJP-led Coalition Concedes Defeat

Producer: Bharati Jagdish
First broadcast: 13 May 04, Radio Singapore International

Indian Prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP-led coalition has been ousted from power

It conceded defeat after vote tallies showed the opposition Congress party gained far more than predicted.

Vajpayee's BJP and its allies lost more than a hundred seats in the 545-member parliament.

According to the latest tallies, Congress and its allies were leading in 223 constituencies and the BJP-led coalition in 189.

The leftist parties were ahead in about 60.

Defence Minister George Fernandes says Mr Vajpayee will resign and his Hindu nationalist party will sit in the opposition

This will pave the way for the Congress Party's Italian-born Sonia Gandhi to become the next Indian Prime Minister.

Among the concerns are whether Congress can lead in terms of foreign policy and economic growth as well as the BJP has.

For more on this, Bharati Jagdish (BJ) spoke to Commodore Uday Bhaskar (UB), Deputy Director of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.

UB: "This is a surprise! The Congress is ahead of the BJP. The assumption before the election was that it would be the BJP and its partners who would be on the ascent."

BJ: Exactly, before the election even began, people were saying that the BJP-led coalition's victory was actually a foregone conclusion. What would you say were the factors that led to the BJP's decline?

UB: "There are two factors at play here. One is what is commonly known as the anti-incumbency syndrome. The other is that there has been a certain movement as far as Indian constituencies and the way in which they identify with parties and issues. For instance, the Congress, at one time, was supposed to be the party of natural choice for the Muslims of India. This election has shown that, over the last five years, there has been a lot of dis-aggregation."

BJ: Going back to your point about the anti-incumbency syndrome, would you say that a substantial number of votes for the opposition, in essence, should be seen as "protest votes" against the BJP-led coalition and not really as a sign of greater support for the Congress?

UB: "Yes, and the principle issues that candidates were talking about before the polls were what we refer to in Hindi as "Bi Pa Sa" - "Bi" refers to "Bijli" which is electricity, "Pa" refers to "Pani" which is water and "Sa" is short for "Sadakh" which is roads. So, in other words, the infrastructure and the local issues that concern people were the most important and I think many of the votes that we've seen were cast based on these issues rather than the macro issues that some candidates were putting forth."

BJ: It seems that the BJP's "India Shining" message, its emphasis on India's economic growth has actually rung hollow for the poor rural voters who make up a very substantial part of the population. Does this signal that the future government should really speed up efforts to develop the rural areas and improve the lives of that group of voters?

UB: "Yes, that would be a reasonable assumption. The BJP leaders themselves admitted this during the second half of the polling period. Mr LK Advani, for example, said that when you travel through India, you realise that "India Shining" is restricted to the urban part of India and that a lot of development work needs to be done."

BJ: Under the BJP and Mr Vajpayee, we've seen the beginning of and progress in dialogue with Pakistan and substantial economic growth. How will these two very important aspects of the country be affected under Congress?

UB: "The major initiatives that have been taken will not be impacted in a significant way. India's current orientation with China, for example, or for that matter, Pakistan, had the support of the Congress. Similarly, on the economic policies. And my sense is that this trend will continue."

BJ: Some analysts are of the view that Sonia Gandhi, by virtue of the fact that she is Italian by birth, would face difficulties as Prime Minister, domestically as well as on the foreign policy front in terms of making concessions to Pakistan and getting hardliners at home onboard. What's your perspective on this?

UB: "The question of Mrs Sonia Gandhi's origin is an issue that was brought up many times before the election, but the way in which the voters have responded would suggest that, as far as they are concerned, this would not be a constraint in any manner. Secondly, as far as the constitution is concerned, the operative portion is whether the person is an Indian citizen or not. Thirdly, as far as dealing with Pakistan or any other country, my sense is that the question of origin would have no bearing because these are decisions which are taken collectively and with a certain degree of continuity."

BJ: I understand the Congress would need the help of other allies to form a stable government. In terms of partner, who is the Congress gunning for?

UB: "The left is emerging as an important player because they seem to have the largest amount of support or lead in constituencies. But some lines had already been drawn before the election wherein people like Mulayam Singh Yadav who represents the Samajwadi, had taken certain positions even before the results were announced and I think that this kind of activity would increase."