July 5th Indonesian Presidential election 24 May 2004

Producer: Augustine Anthuvan
First broadcast: 24 May 04, Radio Singapore International

Indonesians will directly vote for a president for the first time in July, but analysts have already gone on record to say that its unlikely that any candidate will achieve a clear majority. And if that is the case, this could lead to a run-off between the two top candidates in another round of voting in September.

Back in April, more than 140 million people in the world's third largest democracy voted for a national 550-seat parliament for five years.

Professor Andrew MacIntyre, is the Director of the Asia-Pacific School of Economics and Government at the Australian National University speaking with RSI's Augustine Anthuvan looks back at the parliamentary elections.

I think the parliamentary elections sent some quite clear signals from the voters. One message that the voters were sending was that they were quite dissatisfied with the existing administration of President Megawati. There is a clear swing away from her party.

So there is one message there. The message was the surprising rise in popularity of the new party of General (Ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono . As no party won a clear majority in April 5th parliamentary polls, and if parliament has difficulty functioning, then that could retard growth in Indonesia.

Indonesia's elections have caused some nervous investors to hold back on spending, although the peaceful parliamentary vote has partly shored up confidence. Which is why when electors return to the polls on July 5th for the country's first direct presidential election, the Presidential candidates are looking for a clear mandate from the people.

If no one secures more than 50 percent first time around, then there will be a second round on September 20th. Six pairs of candidates have filed their nominations with the Elections Commission (KPU) for the historic presidential elections. They include the National Mandate Party's (PAN) Amien Rais and his running mate, millionaire Siswono Yudhohusodo. United Development Party (PPP) s leader Hamzah Haz, who is Indonesia's Vice-President will be contesting alongside Minister of Telecommunication Agum Gumelar, They re challenging incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri, head of the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI), who has picked a popular Muslim cleric, Hasyim Muzadi, as her running mate.

A front-runner in the public opinion polls for the presidency is Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of the Democratic Party (PD). Susilo's running mate is Yusuf Kalla, a successful businessman and former Coordinating Minister of People's Welfare.

Former Indonesian military chief general Wiranto will run for president on the Golkar ticket, with Wahid's brother, Solahuddin, the party's vice presidential candidate.

In fact hundreds of students and other activists marched through cities across Indonesia on Friday to reject what they called creeping militarism. The protests took place on May 21st marking the sixth anniversary of former President Suharto's resignation. Protesters expressed concern that three of the 12 presidential and vice-presidential candidates in Indonesia's July 5 elections are retired generals.

Augustine Anthuvan asked Professor Andrew MacIntyre of the Australian National University, who is a specialist in Indonesia, for his assessment of the candidates and concerns raised. Yes there are interesting issues there. One of the questions that s emerging is the extent to which there is a demand within the Indonesian electorate for a return to a military man as President. There's clear signals being sent that people want to see more effective management.

One of the advantages that General Wiranto of Golkar has is a large party with a strong party organization and strong backing from some large Indonesian firms. As against that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono seems to have strong personal recognition in the opinion polls and a certain sort of charismatic quality at least to some extent.

So one of the things that's going to be interesting to watch here is the extent to which party organization and money trumps personal popularity. Its not yet clear which way that'll swing . But do you think Indonesians will go back to the Golkar party. After all the image of Golkar is closely linked to Suharto's time or do you think they feel that its better to look forward and give Golkar a chance.

Well there are two big views in circulation on this. If you talk to people in the big cities, the urban elite if you like, you will find a lot of opposition to the idea of returning to the old days and associating Wiranto with the old regime of Suharto. If you go out to the country side, there is less of that and more of an interest just in effective leadership .

What are your thoughts about the incumbent President Megawati, after all as the incumbent she has a lot going in her favour right versus the other candidates?

Yes incumbency is often a major advantage. Its less clear that s the case here. Megawati had a very strong profile when she came into office. And she came into office on a mandate of in part looking after the interests of ordinary Indonesians. There's a wide spread sense that she s failed to deliver on that. So she's really starting behind the curve here. An additional problem that she s got is that her party is quite divided at the moment, there ve been factional splits there. And a number of her party members lost their seats in the parliamentary elections. So she's facing both personal reputational problems and also a less coherent and less organized party machine than she would have liked at this stage. Now it would be a mistake to write Megawati off but I think a lot of the speculation is Wiranto and Bambang are looking the more promising candidates at this stage". What s interesting coming out of Jakarta, I came across a survey done by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), and they said voters are likely to be influenced by the popularity of presidential candidates. Another important factor is loyalty to political parties and of course money. So the attributed 50% are likely to vote because of the popularity of the candidate and 30% loyalty to political parties and 20% is the money factor. Again your thoughts on that? Yes it s the big unknown. In the polls so far, the candidate who stands out is Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. But most of those polls were taken before it was clear that Wiranto was a candidate. So we don t have clear information on this.

Those who think that Bambang is the exciting horse out there, point to the opinion polls and they also note that there isn t a poll anywhere that shows strong support for Wiranto as an individual in terms of the individual character and personality. As against that as you were noting, loyal to party that has to count for something. Golkar s the established party out there and its got funding.

I think we re going to see the media and particularly television is going to be very important for the first time in Indonesian elections. Its really going to be a bit of race now amongst all the candidates to build their personal profiles and money could make a significant difference there . The party situation is pretty much wrapped up for now, so the main concern at this point in time, there are six presidential candidates who have registered and the campaign period is supposed to run from June 1st through 31st, but if these polls figures are correct, 70% of the electorate have basically made up their minds who they will vote for come July 5th even before the campaign period has begun. That means the election campaign is going to be targeted at the 30% of the voters, the swing vote that's likely to make the difference. Yes the swing voters are always the key. One of the interesting features with this election is that the ballots that voters will be facing aren t going to be listing the candidates by party. They're going to be listing as individuals, so a slate of two individuals. And this relates a little to your earlier question of the likelihood of voters remaining loyal to parties with some slates having people from across parties. So we're sailing into fairly unchartered territory here.

One of the other interesting features with this election is the extent to which voters are going to be thinking about if this is a one stage process or a two stage process. will they go into this first round of votes, cause remember unless somebody gets 50%, there ll have to be a second round runoff. Will they go into this thinking that they can t get up their preferred candidate from a smaller party and therefore go for the one who has the best chance or will they split the vote and stick to the smaller parties early on. There s a lot we re going to be finding out for the first time .

Right but all in all it s good for Indonesia right?

That's really the big message out of this. I think it's a surprise to many Indonesians and it's a surprise to all of us in the region its just how well the electoral processes have been working so far in Indonesia. The parliamentary elections went remarkably smoothly given the extent of logistical challenges they had. Had very high voter turnout and essentially the system worked. Voters came out and a message was communicated and it corresponds to the message that people were hearing informally around the countryside. And if you stop and think about it many people have said will democracy hold in Indonesia or will we have a return to the military. What we're seeing here is the two most respected and strongest figures from military background, that's Wiranto and Bambang, both contesting this as an electoral contest.

There's no attempt to over run the electoral system, there s no talk of working outside the constitution. If people want to win power in Indonesia they have to contest the elections. So that s really a major step forward and we'll see how things unfold over the next few years but at this stage its very encouraging .

note: Solahuddin Wahid is deputy chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama, which claims 40 million followers.