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A group linked to the Al Qaeda network has claimed to have
kidnapped an American engineer in the Saudi capital over the
weekend.
The group, which calls itself the Falluja Squadron, posted
a statement on a website claiming to have taken an American
hostage and has killed another American in Saudi Arabia.
The recent spate of individuals targeted in the Saudi capital
of Riyadh also included a BBC cameraman and a reporter.
So what can the Saudi authorities do to prevent such attacks
other than saying that this is the work of the Al Qaeda network?
Felix Tan put this question to Professor Amin Saikal (AS),
of the Australian National University:
AS: Well, I think probably the Saudi authorities have left
it a bit too late. They could have instituted strict security
measures and also brought about wide ranging political and
social economic reforms. Whereby they could have incorporated
those people in Saudi Arabia who has been very unhappy with
the regime and the power structure. I mean, the way the Saudi
authority operated has been very much royal-family centered
operation. And it has left out many other people who could
have a fair say or a fair share in the power structure out
of the structure altogether. And now, some of these elements
have been attracted to the Al Qaeda and to a number of other
internal organisations associated with the Al Qaeda and their
objective is basically not to only drive the foreigners -
in particular the Westerners - out of Saudi Arabia, but also
to destabilise the regime itself as much as possible.
I also understand that US Secretary of State Colin Powell
has recently said that these killings of foreigners or kidnapping
of foreigners in Saudi Arabia were a direct attack against
the Saudi regime. Now, why did he bring the Saudi regime into
the picture, I mean, what is his objective then?
AS: Well, I guess& I mean he has only two objectives
in mind. One is that the operation is not directed just against
the Westerners, but also the Saudi regime itself and the Saudi
leadership because most of those foreigners who are working
in Saudi Arabia in support of the Saudi regime in one form
or another. And I think his second objective was to basically
stimulate the Saudi regime to do something more against the
militants than it had so far because if it is perceived by
the Saudi leadership as a direct attack on the leadership
itself, then from Colin Powell s point of view, that might
stimulate the leadership to do a lot more than it has so far.
But my point is that probably the leadership has left it too
late and they could have done a lot more before. They have
not been able to do that and now, there seem to be wide spread
sympathy for the militants within Saudi Arabia and even maybe
support for the militants from the Saudi security and armed
forces. And therefore, it will make it extremely difficult
for the Saudi leadership to carry out the type of crackdown,
which is absolutely necessary in order to stamp out the resistance
to the regime.
Now, what is the possibility that the Saudis are literally
caught in a sort of a bind - on the one hand, they cannot
look too pro-Western, but on the other hand, there is an urgent
need to mend its image as a safe haven for terrorists or even
this so-called resistance movement?
AS: Well, they are in a very difficult situation and as you
have pointed out, on the one hand, they cannot afford to look
too pro-Western. On the other hand, they are very much dependent
on the United States for their survival. They just cannot
turn their back on the United States and if they do so, then
the whole of Saudi palace structure and the Saudi economy
will be in danger of collapsing. So, this has place the Saudi
regime in an extremely difficult situation and I would like
you to go back to the point that they sat with their hands
on their knees for too long without bringing the necessary
structural reforms and now that has really caught up with
them.
Some analysts believe that these acts are aimed at driving
out foreigners so as to sabotage Saudi Arabia s vital oil
sector. Now, what are the chances that such acts might achieve
its aims?
AS: Well, I do not think one could really expect that the
Saudi oil industry to collapse in the near future. I mean
the Saudis have provided a lot of security for their oil industry
and infrastructure for that industry. And also, I would imagine,
the United States would be heavily involved in providing sustenance
for the Saudis to protect the oil industry in the country.
But if the militants succeed in taking out foreigners one
by one and on a larger number over the coming weeks and months.
And if they succeed in striking at one of the oil facilities
in the country, then one could really expect that that will
affect the overall Saudi oil production and that could have
a very dramatic impact on the world s oil market. I mean even
this isolated assassination, which have taken place in the
last few or individual assassination, which has taken place
in the last few weeks, already have some impact on the world
s oil market and it has caused a panic of a possibility of
an oil crisis and that has short up the prices of oil. And
in the meantime, may be difficult for the Saudis to contain
this crisis to the extent, which the prices could really come
down. One could expect the oil prices to stay pretty high
down at 40 and above and possibly even go higher than 41,
42 per barrel.
So far the reasons for the kidnapping is a revenge for the
mistreatment of Muslim prisoners - whether it is in Iraq s
Abu Ghraib or in Guantanamo Bay, but could it be more than
just that simple reason that it is a revenge?
AS: Oh! I am pretty sure that it is more than that. I think
the objective is not to just take revenge, but also to cause
political, economic and social instability in Saudi Arabia
because the resurgents see Saudi Arabia as a big prize. And
if they succeed in bringing about a change of leadership in
Saudi Arabia, then they would have achieved the very important
objective.
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