Tough fight in Japan’s Upper House election

Producer: Felix Tan
First broadcast: 22 June 04, Radio Singapore International

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party or LDP is facing a tough fight ahead of the election for parliament's Upper House on July 11th.

Already support for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s government has plunged with disapproval ratings higher than its approval ratings.

But the ‘poster boy’ to look for is Mr Heizo Takenaka - the man whom the LDP is trying to bring into the political fold.

So how important is this Upper House election to the LDP then?

Felix Tan put this question to Dr. Takashi Terada (TT), Assistant Professor at the Japanese Studies Department of the National University of Singapore:

TT: “Well, from LDP’s viewpoint, certainly whether Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi can be a Prime Minister - even after the election - or not… certainly this is very important. But from the public viewpoint, we have two important issues that should be the deciding factor for Koizumi’s continuation as a Prime Minister. One is the pension reforms; the other is the self-defence forces despatched to Iraq.”

What are the LDP’s chances, I mean, especially given the much debated or talked about Japanese troops stationed in Iraq?

TT: “Well, purely focusing on this issue -particularly the recent decision to commit the self-defence forces to this so-called ‘multinational forces’ in Iraq… which was prohibited beforehand. But the reformist party, like the Democratic Party of Japan is not necessarily that strong enough - it seems to me - and so I think the people might think that ‘okay, we do not want to support the LDP, but we have no other choice’…”

I also understand that support for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s government has plunged just days before the start of campaigning for this Upper House election. Now, why are the ratings for the LDP so bad if the leader - Junichiro Koizumi - is supposed to be one of the best Prime Ministers in Japan so far?

TT: “Well, so far, Koizumi is LDP’s only politician who can change the old political system that LDP had promoted. And many people have been sick of such an old political style, simply that decisions were always made behind the curtains and involving the big businesses and the bureaucrats. But Koizumi actually tried to exercise the strong leadership of the Prime Minister in making such decisions in almost all cases. So simply this kind of leadership style is something new and quite attractive to the Japanese public. But viewing this style over three years… for some people, they have casted doubts on the abilities of Prime Minister Koizumi and particularly, the dissent with the swift decision to despatch the forces to the multinational forces in Iraq, which is something the Japanese people believe in was unprecedented. So, I think this is quite a significant issue. But also reforms of Japan’s pension system. And this is another significant issue, which the Japanese people actually do not like. And for example, today, I think birth ratio was announced a couple of weeks ago - after this new pension reform was passed in the Diet - that the ratio was actually lower than the government’s expectations. So, that means that in the future, the total Japanese population could not sustain the current strength of the pension. So, I think many people casted doubts on the validity and even the effectiveness of the current pension system. So, given these two significant issues - I mean, there is the Japanese in the multinational forces and the pension system. So, I think some people simply do not like the LDP and Koizumi. But then, again, we do not have a strong alternative.”

There is this person - Mr Heizo Takenaka. Now, why is Mr Heizo Takenaka so important in this election, they seem to be promoting this chap?

TT: “Well, Takenaka seems to a symbol of the Japanese structural reforms, which Prime Minister Koizumi has been strongly pushing for. And he is not a politician. He was a former Professor of the University. So, in this case, some people, particularly… well, quite a few in LDP believe that the ministerial position (Finance minister) is so much significant, but he is not elected as a politician. So, some people say he should be replaced by a politician because this is a very significant ministerial post. I think to avoid this criticism, Koizumi decided to ask Takenaka to run for the election this time and that means Koizumi really wants to promote his intention that structural reforms is still very significant in his political agenda for Koizumi. And Takenaka is necessary in this case. So, in this case, some young voter who tend to support Koizumi’s structural reforms might like supporting LDP in this proportional system… So, in this case, Takenaka can be an important figure attracting more votes because of his role as a symbol of structural reforms.”