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The Indonesian Presidential election is nearing its final
stages as candidates try to outdo each other at their election
rallies
Presidential candidate, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, appears
to be one of the front-runners, both in supporter turnout
at his rallies and independent polls.
About 70,000 people turned up for Mr Yudhoyono’s rally,
held at the Senayan Stadium yesterday. President, Megawati
Soekarnoputri’s rally at the same venue one week earlier
saw about 40,000 people
So how will this massive voter turnout translate into support
in terms of votes for Mr Yudhoyono?
Melanie Yip put the question to Dr. Sukardi Rinakit (SR),
Executive Director of the Center for Political Studies in
Jakarta.
SR: I think Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is very popular. Most
of the polls conducted by the independent institutes showed
that he got more than 45% support, this is important because
it shows that majority of Indonesians prefer Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono (SBY) to be the president. Compare that to support
for bigger political parties like Wiranto’s, Indonesians
still prefer SBY, judging by the estimated 70,000 supporter
turnout at his rally, he is capable of attracting the millions
of voters in Indonesia.
Mr Yudhoyono’s popularity is evident as shown by his
lead in some of the presidential polls conducted. And Mr Yudhoyono
said he was confident of getting more than 40% of the votes
to make it to the run off in September. What is the possibility
of him getting 50% of the votes needed for an outright win?
SR: Our poll results show SBY gaining about 46.6%. Of course
the logic is that he needs about another 5% and he will be
able to proceed to the 2nd round. However, I think it is impossible
or very tough for Yudhoyono to gain that 5%. I feel that the
presidential election will proceed to the 2nd round, it is
almost impossible to have a clear winner from the first round.
At the same time, Mr Bambang is facing harsh criticisms from
his political rivals who accuse him of being anti-Islamic,
and his running mate, Mr Jusuf Kalla of being hostile to ethnic
Chinese Indonesians. Are his political opponents justified
in their claims?
SR: I don’t think so. I think all these negative campaigns
targeting SBY and the military will not be effective. This
will spread to the middle class educated people. At the most,
2 million voters will be affected but it is not a significant
issue, and will not affect SBY or Jusuf Kalla.
How much will this negative campaigning by his political
opponents affect voter support for Mr Yudhoyono’s bid
to be Indonesia’s next president?
SR: Negative campaigns by SBY’s opponents accusing him
of being anti-Islam, and anti-Christian. People are aware
of these negative campaigns, but it will not work or influence.
Okay, if there should be an influence, it will take off 2
million voters, it is not significant for SBY or Jusuf Kalla.
I’m sure both will pass through to the second round.
Whoever wins the Indonesian presidential elections will need
to take responsibility for many of the social and economic
problems facing the country, including slow economic growth,
poverty, mass unemployment etc. Is Mr. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
capable of leading the country out of the economic crisis,
with his military background?
SR: Whoever becomes president of Indonesia will not have
an easy task trying to solve the complex problems of Indonesia,
whether he has a military background or not. I feel that change
to the Indonesia will be gradual, where the president will
solve 10% of the problems in the first year, 20% in the second
year, and within the maximum number of years in his presidency,
I think that at least 30% of the situation will be improved.
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