How will Iraq’s independence status affect the United States’ position there?

Producer: Felix Tan
First broadcast: 29 June 04, Radio Singapore International

In a surprise move Monday, 28 June, the United States handed back power to Iraq’s interim government - two days earlier than expected.

The 14-month US-led occupation in Iraq ended after US civilian administrator Paul Bremer handed legal documents on the transfer of power to Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.

Soon after the ceremony, Paul Bremer left on a flight back to the US, while US Ambassador to Iraq John Negroponte arrived to re-establish a US diplomatic presence.

So, how prepared were the Iraqi people for the surprise handover?

Felix Tan put this question to Professor David Tucker (DT), of the University of Melbourne in Australia:

DT: “I do not think it was expected - no! But I think it was at least something that people were prepared for. So, journalists were all there. It wasn’t as though they did not have people in place. But I do not think they actually knew it was going to happen two days before.”

Was the threat of terrorism responsible for the early handover?

DT: “I think that was exactly what it was all about. It was partly about getting a news focus, partly about trying to avoid any terrorist attacks on the ceremony. So, they may have had some information that they were planning attacks and this was quite a clever way of avoiding that.”

But do you think, in your opinion, this early surprise handover has actually succeeded to a certain extent in thwarting any possible terrorist attacks in Iraq?

DT: “It has… well, Paul Bremer has left the country and maybe they were planning attacks, you know, to try one last time to get hold of him. But I think there were other factors as well. George Bush was at the NATO conference at the time with a meeting with the heads of states and this gave him the opportunity to talk to the other ministers and to try and get NATO’s support for the new Iraq. So, it was politically quite a useful thing that it has happened two days earlier.”

This early handover caught many by surprise. Now, like you mentioned earlier, Paul Bremer made a very quick exit. Now, from heroic entrance to less-than-heroic exit, what does this say about the United States?

DT: “I think it shows that they are quite worried. There was not a lot of ceremony; there was not a lot of celebration. And in fact, one of the things we can say that even the Iraqi people did not celebrate in the normal way - with shooting guns in the air, there was a bit of that, but there was nothing like what people would want to see, to show that the population was enthusiastic. And certainly, I think the Americans were not wanting to have a celebration that could be bombed.”

How will this event or this early handover actually affect both US President George W. Bush as well as British Prime Minister Tony Blair?

DT: “Well, I think it gives them a bit of cover from now on. They are now using the fiction that Iraq is an independent country. And this is going to give them some better standing internationally because they are gong to try and get Iraq to be represented in international forums as an independent country. And already the NATO leaders have agreed there will be some support for Iraq. They are going to give some training support… France and Germany are, I think, very difficult. They do not want to see any troops from NATO put into Iraq at all. They preferred to send in help to Afghanistan and let America handle Iraq. But, yes, this change has given a little bit of respectability to the Americans - something that they did not have before. So that they can now say that Iraq is an independent country - I do not know whether anyone actually believes that - but that is what they are putting out and internationally, it makes a difference. And I think politically, people will have to ask questions of the new Prime Minister and not of the American counsel. And that makes a difference because in the future, the press will be focused on the Prime Minister and that will be an Iraqi.”

Now that Iraq is once again a sovereign nation, a sovereign state as well as independent country, do you think that the United Nations might play a more important role in its involvement in Iraq - you know, maybe on the request of the Prime Minister?

DT: “Well, yes. This was what I was saying…they have already persuaded NATO to be a bit forthcoming and I think this is just a move from moving from NATO now to going to the United Nations. And of course Iraq will be now asking for representation and will have people to speak for the Iraqi people. So, this will make a difference and will make it easier, I think, to get international support.”

What will happen to the US troops in Iraq for now and will we be seeing more troops being sent over there, maybe from NATO or other countries as well, especially from the Middle East?

DT: “Well, I think this is what the Americans would like to see. Not only American troops, but troops coming from other countries, troops perhaps being sent through the United Nations or through NATO. But whether that will actually happen is very doubtful. I think that people in the rest of the world were not very happy about the Iraq war - they do not want to send their own troops into situation, which is very hostile… Politicians are scare of having to carry the responsibilities for people being killed. And until the security problems in Iraq are more under control, only then you will get a lot of help from other countries.”