Indonesian voters may not consider party loyalties when electing president

Producer: Bharati Jagdish
First broadcast: June 30 04, Radio Singapore International

A survey by the Institute for the Study and Advancement of Business Ethics in Indonesia has revealed that Indonesian voters who backed the Golkar party in parliamentary elections would not support presidential candidates from the party when they go to the polls on Monday.

Golkar won about 21 percent of the vote in the April parliamentary election.

But this survey shows that only about 10 percent of respondents who said they voted for Golkar in April, would vote for Wiranto and Solahuddin Wahid, Golkar's representatives in the upcoming presidential election.

So why is party loyalty not a factor in voters' choice for president in this case?

Bharati Jagdish (BJ) put this to political analyst, Dr Greg Barton (GB)from the Deakin University in Australia.

GB: "There seem to be two things going on here. One is that Akbar Tandjung as Golkar chairman and the Golkar establishment, who were very surprised when Wiranto managed to beat Akbar Tandjung in the Golkar convention to become the party's presidential nominee, are not getting behind Wiranto. The second thing is that across the country, people are saying, "Well, I voted for a political party in April, why can't I choose who I want to be president in July regardless of which political party they come from?""

BJ: So, in your opinion, would this extend across the board and apply to other candidates as well?

GB: "Well, it certainly seems to apply to Megawati Sukarnoputri who is, like Wiranto, getting only about half of her PDI-P parliamentary vote, if polls are to be believed. She seems likely to get perhaps 11 percent or 12 percent of the vote despite her party getting 20 percent of the vote in April. On the other hand, Amien Rais, although his party didn't do so well in April, looks like his presidential vote will increase over his party vote, maybe because the Prosperous Justice Party seems to be getting behind him. But it does seem to be case in this first-ever direct presidential election that people are saying, "well, voting for parties in parliament is one and voting for presidents is another thing altogether". Perhaps people are hedging their bets. They don't mind PDI-P or Golkar getting a fair number of votes in terms of seats in parliament, but when it comes to a president, they don't mind having somebody else in order to keep things in check, in order to keep the party and the president honest."

BJ: Now, according to this survey, Wiranto and Solahuddin Wahid came in tops when it came to rating the candidates' concern for the common people. What are the factors that could have led to this perception?

GB: "Well, Yudhoyono is universally-liked. People across all parties like him, but a lot of people do say that he seems rather aloof, whereas Wiranto carries a lot of historical baggage because of his leadership of the Indonesian military under Suharto, not just because of East Timor, but because of the May 1998 riots and because of the use of civil militia in the months that followed. Yet Wiranto has a very warm, very charming manner. He knows how to win over a crowd. Yudhoyono seems rather aristocratic and aloof. Nice, but distant. At this point, people seem to think that what matters most is to have a strong, clean leader, even if he's a little distant, it doesn't really matter. People like Wiranto. He's a fun guy, but he's not strong and clean enough to guarantee that things are going to change in Indonesia."

BJ: Now, recently we've been seeing a series of political dialogues or debates between the candidates on television. Who, in your opinion, is coming across really well at this point?

GB: "The easy way to answer this question is to say who's NOT coming across well. Megawati is doing dismally. It seems like the more she tries in this campaign, the worse it gets and the television debates have done her any favours. Yudhoyono does very well. He seems to be an intellectual man who knows how to handle things. Wiranto is more charming, but also clearly pretty sharp. But Megawati certainly just doesn't project herself very well in any medium and certainly on television, she's done very badly."

BJ: What specific mistakes has she been making?

GB: "It's a case of too little, too late. If she had tried to identify a few key issues much earlier on, perhaps people would be more generous to her. During the campaign period, she keeps on dishing out rhetoric without suggesting how she's going to deliver. Talking about unemployment is great, but just some modicum of policy initiatives for creating jobs would have been more convincing."

BJ: According to opinion polls and surveys, a substantial proportion of voters is still undecided. What do you think would determine the decisions of this group of people at this stage?

GB: "If I was voting and if I was undecided at this late stage, I would say to myself, "either I vote against the person who is most likely to win according to opinion polls on the grounds of keeping them honest, or I vote FOR the most likely winner, since he appears to be so popular." With 20 percent of the voters undecided and with Yudhoyono now hitting about 40 percent or higher in opinion polls, I think there's a fair chance he'll pick up enough undecided voters to be elected president in one go next week."

BJ: So you're saying that we may not even need to go to a second round. Yudhoyono could get the 50 + percent mandate in the first round?

GB: "Well, the last time we had this discussion, I argued to the contrary. It seemed impossible to imagine any candidate getting more than 50 percent, even Yudhoyono who was polling well as early as March. But now, it does seem that he's close enough to that magic 50 percent just based on polling and it's likely that he'll pick up enough undecided voters to get him across the line."