Indonesia's Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono bracing himself for a tough runoff election

Producer: Bharati Jagdish
First broadcast: 8 July 04, Radio Singapore International

Senior party executives and campaign managers for the top two presidential candidates, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati Sukarnoputri are now trying to build a coalition before the September 20 runoff election.

There is currently no doubt about Susilo's place in the second round and Megawati remains in second place at this stage.

About 50 percent of the ballots have been counted.

But much of the candidates' success in the second round will depend on which political parties decide to back them.

Analysts say that both Susilo and Megawati will try to get support from Golkar, the largest party in the Indonesian parliament.

For more on this, Bharati Jagdish (BJ) spoke to political analyst, Dr Suzaina Kadir (SK) from the National University of Singapore.

SK: "I think it's really about how each of the presidential and vice-presidential pairings negotiates with Golkar. The reality is that Golkar will be the largest party in parliament and therefore it will have a lot of say in the day-to-day governance of the country. Both candidates know that they will have to make a deal with Golkar in order to increase their prominence, so it really depends on what kind of deal each of the candidates can offer Golkar and which one will be more attractive to Golkar. In a sense, if Megawati representing PDI-P offers a sweet-enough deal to Golkar, Golkar and PDI-P together will have a substantial majority. There seems that there will be additional pressure on Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to make a good deal for Golkar in order to bolster his chances."

BJ: When you talk about a "good deal" or a "sweet deal", what exactly are you referring to? What would a "good deal" constitute?

SK: "Essentially, it's a negotiation over cabinet positions. There are obviously key ministries which are important to the various parties. There are some ministries which are more important than others. So it's really about where the cabinet positions are going to go."

BJ: Does the fact that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's running mate is a Golkar man, Jusuf Kalla, make any difference to his chances of getting Golkar to back him?

SK: "There is hope on Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's part that because of Jusuf Kalla, he might be able to persuade Golkar to back his team rather than Megawati's, but then again, there's no guarantee, because certainly, PDI-P and Megawati can negotiate with Golkar just as well."

BJ: Which candidate do you think Golkar is leaning towards at this stage?

SK: "It's really difficult to say. I think we're beginning to get some level of information in terms of the kind of deals that are being offered, but it's really difficult to say with any certainty."

BJ: Some analysts say that Susilo will have to work really hard in the lead-up to the run-off if he indeed ends up facing off against Megawati because he doesn't have the political machinery that she has. What's your perspective on this?

SK: "There is some truth to that. Obviously, he's going to have to maintain the level of support that he has had in the first round of the presidential election. He's going to have to sustain that and then push further in order to prevent any gains that Megawati could make between now and September."

BJ: Now, how far will pre-September 20th coalition-building efforts impact voters' decisions?

SK: "That's a good question, because we are dealing with direct presidential elections so again, the question about the extent to which the party machinery actually factors in how people vote is going to come into play. This, however, requires further research. So far, the indications have been that the party machinery has not had too much impact. It has not been terribly strong. So, in that sense, if we assume that because this is a direct presidential election, the role of the party machinery is diminished, it would have less of an impact. But again, it's not quite clear at this stage."

BJ: We're going to be seeing another round of campaigning before the September runoff. What do you expect the candidates to do now in terms of campaigning that they haven't already done?

SK: "One would assume that they have to get a bit more specific, that they would have to get more aggressive. Perhaps, in some sense, actually try to make clearer their policies and what they can offer vis-a-vis the other candidate. Now, it's just down to two candidates, therefore the focus should be tighter and you will be able to compare one against the other more easily."

BJ: At the beginning of this process, Megawati didn't seem to be doing very well, but she managed to do pretty well in the first round of the election, coming in second based on the ballots counted so far. Do you expect her to get even stronger as time goes by?

SK: "That's what a lot of people are thinking about mainly because, prior to the election, the assumption was that Megawati would not do well, possibly, even not make it to the second round. Yet, at this point, it looks like she has made it through. You never know. It seems to be that in this case, she might be able to turn her fortunes around and try to move forward. But I think, ultimately, it will take quite a lot for her to beat Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono."