By: Dr Khoo How San
First published: 26 July 04, TODAY

You know it is going to be a long, hot summer when ...

Taiwanese fighter jets practise landings and take-offs on highways as they might have to in a war with China and Chinese troops prepare for drills that will see them land on beaches similar to those found on western Taiwan.

On the political scene, Chinese leaders wag their fingers at visiting US National Security Adviser, Dr Condoleeza Rice, lecturing her that "it's the cross-strait situation, stupid" even if it's an election year in the US.

Not to be outdone, Dr Rice returns the favour by publicly rebuffing Beijing's demands that Washington stops selling weapons to Taipei.

Some other provocative news stories this summer included a US Pentagon report suggesting Taiwan might try and blow up China's Three Gorges Dam if political push comes to military shove across the Taiwan Strait, the possible targeting of the Taiwanese President by Chinese assassination squads and the spectre of a military resolution of the Taiwan issue by 2020.

Not to be outdone, a US Congressional group recommended that it might be a good idea for the US to take another look at its longstanding "One China" policy.

With the Asia-Pacific temperature being raised by all this, why not throw in newspaper headlines such as "US plans huge show of force in Pacific".

The webshots that subsequently rang round the world raised the spectacle of a gathering in the Pacific of seven - yes, seven - United States Navy aircraft carrier strike groups. Internet groups buzzed with conspiracy theories.

Whew! All these should make one hot under the collar. At the very least, someone might be hard at work at this moment on a new novel a la Tom Clancy.

But it is that time of the year. While the atmospherics have indeed been tweaked up recently, things aren't that bad - yet.

For starters, some of the reports have been more dramatic than warranted.

First, the Chinese and Taiwanese carry out major summer military exercises every year.

It seems logical that - year in, year out - Chinese exercise scenarios should focus on an invasion of Taiwan since it is Beijing's policy to invade Taiwan if the island declared independence.

Part of China's military worries in a conflict would be US involvement.

Hence, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is paranoid about the presence of even one US carrier strike group, let alone a group orgy!

Similarly, the Taiwanese would logically explore all means of self-defence.

For example, in some past exercises around this time, cyber warfare was a concern. This year, having military aircraft use emergency runways makes sense.

Secondly, you can expect political atmospherics from China, Taiwan and the US, especially at this time of the year. Each "dramatic" report or news caters to particular groups and their agendas.

Thirdly, there will be no concentration of seven US carrier strike groups (CSGs) in the Pacific. (Sorry, ladies of the night in potential ports of call, you can put away thoughts of making big bucks from the 50,000-odd sailors such an armada would have).

It is true that seven CSGs are taking part in an ongoing US exercise called "Summer Pulse 2004". But they will be "pulsing" (I'll explain this term shortly) from locations worldwide, and not in one spot.

For example, the Enterprise CSG pulsed out of Norfolk, Virginia, last month to European waters for Nato exercises before sailing into Portsmouth, England, earlier this month for a port call.

In our region, the Kitty Hawk CSG, forward deployed in Japan, recently left Yokosuka port to join the exercise. Another carrier, the John C Stennis, is in the region and may have been also involved in Rim of the Pacific (Rimpac) exercises off Hawaii and involving a number of navies this summer.

So what is pulsing? It is simply deployment (or surging) to combat duty in areas outside the homeport within a given timeframe.

What is significant is that these seven CSGs are taking part, for the first time, in a test of what is called the Fleet Response Plan.

What most media reports failed to highlight adequately is that this plan, once the kinks are ironed out, provides the US Navy with a highly potent and flexible response to global crisis situations.

"It will signal to friends and potential adversaries that substantial sea-based combat power can respond on short notice," said one US Navy top brass.

So, while there will be no gathering of seven US carriers (each carrying up to 80 warplanes) in the Pacific this summer, it does mean that in a future crisis in the region, more than one CSG may be expected to respond. In a crisis over the Taiwan Strait in 1996, the US sent two CSGs in a show of strength. And that was before Summer Pulse 2004.

Finally, just as hot summer is followed by cool autumn, it is unlikely that all this military activity by all sides will lead to any rash action. The simultaneous drills by the US, Chinese and Taiwanese forces are all happening far away from each other. Things will cool - until next summer!

The writer is an independent analyst and part-time lecturer at the National University of Singapore.