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Why Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will triumph
in September run-off
By: Karim Raslan
First published: 2 August 04, TODAY
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Will incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri, who finished
second in the Indonesian presidential polls, defeat front-runner
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (or SBY) in the September run-off?
SBY has failed to secure the 50 per cent needed to give him
the presidency immediately.
Some commentators, citing Ms Megawati's greater financial resources
and the willingness of her party, the Indonesian Democratic
Party - Struggle (PDI-P), to "do deals" with losing
parties such as Golkar, have argued that she may snatch victory
from the jaws of defeat.
I am sceptical of such views and remain convinced that SBY will
be the republic's next leader.
First, it is obvious that Indonesians want change. Think about
it this way - well over 75 per cent of the voting public chose
not to support Ms Megawati; that's a big thumbs-down. By way
of comparison, SBY is perceived as a breath of fresh air.
And this is highly ironic because SBY served in the Cabinets
of both Ms Megawati and Mr Abdurrahman Wahid.
However, such is the clamour for a new face (and the hope that
a new leader embodies) that many voters have developed a form
of political amnesia. They have forgiven and forgotten SBY's
role in the previous administrations.
Second, the voting for the presidential polls has shown that
Indonesians are making their decisions based on the individual
candidate's strengths and weaknesses. Party affiliations are
considered less important.
The most striking example of this trend is the way in which
the support for Mr Hamzah Has, the current Vice-President and
Partai Persatuan Pembangunan leader, has collapsed from a creditable
8.15 per cent of the popular vote in April's legislative polls
to a paltry 3 per cent in the presidential contest.
In comparison, SBY has experienced the opposite. His immense
popularity has meant that he garnered - personally - nearly
five times as many votes in the presidential polls as his Partai
Demokrat party won in April.
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Third, Indonesia's predominantly tolerant mainstream has once
again shown its good sense. Parties and candidates representing
more extremist views failed to break out beyond the fringes
of the political debate.
Radical Islam is not a realistic alternative and moderation
is a fact of life in Indonesia.
Moreover, the country's commitment to the secularist ideology
of Pancasila (belief in one supreme God, humanitarianism, nationalism
expressed in the unity of Indonesia, consultative democracy
and social justice) remains unshaken.
However, Indonesians are growing more aware of their faith and,
while they don't support extremism, they want leaders who embody
positive Islamic values.
In this respect, Ms Megawati is at a disadvantage given her
stubborn silence on all subjects vaguely religious.
However, it is not the central issue. Instead, her refusal to
take a leadership role has become a problem.
Fourth, the presidential polls have not set Indonesia ablaze
- either literally or metaphorically. The national mood has
been subdued and nonchalant: The Euro 2004 football matches
and Indonesian equivalents of American Idol and Akademia Fantasia
have attracted far more interest.
Decentralisation (known as regional autonomy in Indonesia) has
become a fact of life. Power has been shifting away from Jakarta
to the provinces and regencies.
As a consequence, electoral battles at grassroots level have
become more intense because the authority to shape policy and
raise funds exists at the lower echelons of the government.
While the overall trends favour SBY, Ms Megawati could well
stage a comeback if she were to do two things and abstain from
a third.
Ms Megawati must change her haughty and standoffish manner.
The President should revamp her Cabinet by sacking unpopular
and controversial figures such as Mr Laksamana Sukardi and Ms
Rini Soewandi and replace them with new and untainted faces.
Finally, she and her advisers must avoid the temptation to play
"dirty". Doing so can lose her the modicum of sympathy
she enjoys as the laggard.
A negative campaign would also be self-defeating because it
would create an atmosphere of distrust and bitterness.
Were Ms Megawati to change herself, she could win the polls
convincingly. However, it is doubtful that the daughter of Indonesia's
great independence leader sees herself as part of the problem.
Unlike SBY, she lacks the drive and determination to learn and
improve.
Either way, the real winner will be Indonesia and, as we all
know, a strong, prosperous Indonesia is good for business and
good for the region.
The writer is a Kuala Lumpur-based lawyer and author.
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