Do Indonesia’s police and military prefer Megawati or Yudhoyono as their next President?

Producer: Yvonne Gomez
First broadcast: 17 September 04, Radio Singapore International

In this year’s presidential election, one of the candidates, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is a former general.

So what kind of support will he get from the military and the police?

Yvonne Gomez posed this question to Dr Leonard Sebastian from the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore.

LS: Essentially the police are behind Megawati 100%. I mean, as President, she has effectively allowed them the space, and allowed them to gain access to capabilities that enabled them to function better in this war against terror. I mean, particularly, with respect to the police’s needs in terms of cooperation with external agencies like the FBI and the Australian Federal Police. So the latitude has been given in that sense. Of course the police report directly to the President. In that regard, they see a great deal of benefit in her staying, because you must remember now, that the security responsibilities since 1999, have been divided. The police are focusing on internal security and the military, on external defence matters. Of course the police are a little concerned about the possibility that a military man might become president, and what their fortunes would be, if such a situation emerges.

YG: What would be their fortunes, or alternatives for them, if a military man became president?

LS: It’s very difficult to speculate actually. My sense is that it can’t change all that much. But I would imagine, in time, the police should evolve into a professional force, that I feel, should be under the Ministry of Home Affairs, and that would be a logical structure within the context of decentralization, I feel that it would also be important for the police, as they try to discharge their regional responsibilities, to become more responsible to the governor of the provinces.

YG: When it comes to the navy, how do you think they feel about both Megawati and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono?

LS: Well this is very strange, because if you think in terms of the military as a force, they’re not really united behind one or the other. I know the tendency would be to take the perspective that the military is solidly behind Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono because he’s an ex-military man. But that really isn’t the case. A lot depends really on the perceptions within the various institutions of the military. If you look at the navy, my sense from my last visit to Indonesia, just two days ago, is that they seem to be behind Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The perception is the air force, on the other hand, would favour Megawati. If you think in terms of the army, there is a split there too, because the sense I get is that the military elite seem to favour Megawati staying on, because the relationship between the elite and Megawati has been very good over the last two years. But for the middle-ranking officers, it’s different ball game all together. Many of them are inspired by Bambang Yudhoyono, and would like to see a military man back in power.

YG: What would be some reasons for wanting a military man in power?

LS: I suppose a common perspective would be enhanced security, a more decisive leader and someone with managerial capability. In a sense you could say that a senior officer in the military has had the opportunity to run a large organization. So there is that managerial capacity, and also greater discipline, in terms of policy choices. The only worry is that this has been a very interventionist military force. So one wonders whether a president with a military background, would adopt a more interventionist stance in the management of government affairs. One of the real advantages for Megawati, has been the fact that ministers who were capable, were allowed to get on with the job, which was good in one sense, because those capable ministers really stabilized things, and one classic example is the Finance Minister Budiono, whose stewardship of the financial system, has effectively stabilized the currency, and macroeconomic stability is also quite evident in the strong performance of the economic team. But in other areas, where politicisation of the policy process becomes evident, then you need a president to step into the void and give direction. Maybe that’s where President Megawati has been weak.

YG: Staying on that point, one of the concerns about Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is that he hasn’t actually defined his actual policies – the policies that he will adopt should he become President of Indonesia. You’ve just said that if there is an emphasis on security, then he is likely to win and that they’re likely to want him as president. But what kind of expertise can he bring to economy – to revive Indonesia’s economy?

LS: It’s very difficult to get a sense of what his economic policies are and both candidates suffer from the same problem. The policies are not articulated clearly. There are general statements made on a variety of issues. Indonesia needs more than that, because it is now into an extended period of slow economic growth, since 1998, and it needs to break out of that cycle. It’s seven years now since it’s seen strong economic growth, and it needs to at least have a minimum of 7% growth in roder to ensure that the economy is able to sustain the large number of people coming into the workforce every year. So I think what is absolutely necessary is a need for a concerted plan of action - something that can be implemented immediately to kickstart the economy and get the process going. Unfortunately both candidates haven’t provided it through the presidential debates.