Taiwan's threat to attack Shanghai angers China

Producer: Bharati Jagdish
First broadcast: 29 September 04, Radio Singapore International

China has accused Taiwan Premier, Yu Shyi-kun, of clamouring for war after he made threats to fire missiles at Shanghai if the People's Liberation Army attacks the self-ruled island in the future.

Last week, Taiwan defended plans to buy over 18 billion dollars worth of weapons from the United States saying that Taiwan needs a counter-strike capability to hit China's financial centre of Shanghai if the PLA ever attacks the island's capital, Taipei and the southern city of Kaohsiung.

If approved by parliament, the 18-billion-dollar weapons deal would be Taiwan's biggest in the last decade.

Tensions between China and Taiwan have been simmering since the re-election of the island's president, Chen Shui Bian.

Beijing is convinced that President Chen will push for independence during his four-year term.

For more on the recent spat, Bharati Jagdish (BJ) spoke to political analyst, Dr Philip Yang (PY) from the National Taiwan University.

PY: "There was an old doctrine during the Cold War called "balance of terror" meaning that if both sides have equal ability to attack each other, especially in very important military or civilian areas, there can be a deterrent value if both sides have a military balance - under a threat of mutual destruction. Some Taiwanese politicians here, especially the current Chen administration are really worried about this military threat from China, an increasing military threat stemming from China's missile deployment and its weapons modernisation programme. So for Taiwan, there's really no other alternative except to ask the US to sell more arms to Taiwan in order to maintain a balance."

BJ: So Taiwan is merely taking a defensive position rather than an offensive position?

PY: "I think so. Our military capability and military doctrine in terms of cross-strait relations is based on enhancing defensive military capabilities and maintaining cross-strait military defence. I don't think we're heading in the direction of enhancing any offensive capabilities, not to mention that offensive weaponry systems are difficult to develop and it's not easy to get sufficient technological assistance as well. It would also not serve our best interests in terms of the possibility of creating an arms race with China."

BJ: I understand that the arms package deal between the US and Taiwan has come under criticism by opposition parties in Taiwan. They're saying that the country can't afford the weapons and the money should be spent on other things like social welfare or education. They also argue that the weapons take too long to deploy and therefore may not even be an effective defence. What's your perspective on this?

PY: "I think they have a good argument there and indeed, if you look at this procurement per se, the whole process has lacked sufficient debate and discussion within Taiwan society and even within the Taiwan military. Is this procurement per se really addressing the military threat from the PLA? We haven't really discussed this. Other things such as budget issues, domestic political considerations and cross-strait relations have also not been properly discussed in this context."

BJ: However, Taiwan has talked about independence numerous times before and President Chen seems to be a proponent of this. Is Taiwan really walking a dangerous path that could soon provoke China?

PY: "Well, it's a very important question but judging from President Chen Shui Bian's remarks during his inauguration speech in which he promised he will not touch on the sovereignty issue when he revises the constitution in the future, it doesn't look so bad. It's really up to Beijing's own interpretation of Taiwan's actions and policies with regard to the revision of the constitution and other policies such as participation in international activities or in international organisations. It's both sides' responsibility not to provoke the other side or not to challenge the sensitivity of cross-strait relations and also not to over-interpret any policy actions as a measure of creeping Taiwanese independence aspirations or an increasing military threat."

BJ: Do you foresee the US coming under scrutiny once again because of its willingness to supply weapons to Taiwan?

PY: "The United States is not a unitary actor. Within the government of the United States, there are some branches which think that maintaining cross-strait military balance is a very important mechanism for maintaining a peaceful status quo. There are some merits in this kind of thinking, but it's difficult to maintain a balance when this kind of acquisition of military technology or deployment will be interpreted by the other side as a sign that the US is helping Taiwan to pursue its independence aspirations."