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Now
if all this is really as good as you make it
sound to be. For the consumers, it means cheaper and
cheaper products but does it also mean
greater profits for the semi-conductor industry?
I think not all the
companies will have greater profits but you, if you
look at the fabulous companies like Intel or also Motorola,
and please also look at IBM. People thought that IBM
was on the verge of 'bankruptcy', but they have rebounded
it in a remarkable thing. So European companies like
the French company, the Germans' Siemens company was
also in Singapore. You have to be on your toes.
It is a very, very tough
business. It is very rapid in change and I experienced
the first years in Silicon Valley and I thought 'Oh,
this is a young industry and sometimes prices go up
and prices come down'. Demand goes up and demand goes
down like crazy. And I thought well at least in ten
or fifteen years this industry will mature. No, not
at all true. So it is still a very lively, very much
oscillating type of industry- up and down difficult
for everybody involved. Very difficult in fact. People
get hired and fired especially in US but also in Asia,
Japan and so on. So, it's not an easy thing and the
consumer will eventually benefit from it.
Think of the low telephone
rates, would have been totally impossible! It's not
just the lawyers who did this and the politicians but
they relied on very interesting new developments like
the glass-fibre. We had great difficulties in cleaning
the glass. I was at Bell Laboratories at that time when
it started and we would never think that we could do
it. But now, life travels hundreds of kilometres through
a glass-fibre and the repeated stages and so. Or the
satellite, they all relied on a essentially silicon
technology in the very heart of these instruments. So
the consumers can have very cheap telephone costs.
No problem for me to call
my children who are in the States or friends in Germany.
When but I went to the United States, making an overseas
telephone call was already quite an investment. So this
has all come down. Or even in the kitchen with much
better control and safety and security fire alarm and
so on. So this is what we silicon people did for you.
Wafer-fabrication is said to grow by 25% in the
next 2 years (QU: Yes!) and then Singapore for the next
10 years, we have been talking about twenty-five thousand
new jobs. (QU: Right!) Now, what do you think it will
take the countries to milk this
wafer-fab dry and keep pace with global markets?
You have to be aware of
basically such: the Silicon age differs from the previous
bronze and iron age in that it is based on Science.
The Iron Age, when it started was just trial and error.
You threw something into your iron and thought, maybe
it makes it stronger or tougher so easier to mill and
so on. But Silicon would not have been possible without
really understanding the electronic and atomic features,
understanding quantum theory and so on.
So if you are in this business,
it's not enough to simply do development work or old-fashioned
type of engineering. You have to follow the scientific
trends like the quantum affects it and so on. So that
is very important. So, you need at least the minimal
of scientific observations so that you know what might
be becoming, so you can plan ahead.
Now,
you have been hailed as one of the forefathers of the
Silicon Valley. (QU: Oh no.) Having started your silicon
way back in the 1950s with Nobel laureate William Shockley,
tell us what it was like, what the lesson was to learn
working with such a man who has brilliant full sights,
but
not very successful on the commercial side?
That is quite right! William
Shockley invented the transistor and dial at Bell telephone
laboratory together with 2 colleagues which received
the Nobel Prize in fifty-six. Then he said somewhat
gloriously and said, "I have seen my name often enough
in the Physics Papers and now I want to see my name
in Wall Street Journal". So and then he went to Northern
California. This was an area, which he liked and there
was nothing else going on. No competing industry.
So if you want to start
a new technology, go to a new place very much like it
happening in Venice centuries before and then Shockley
hired a very good crew which that deserted him. It was
almost a Greek tragedy, which was why Shockley was the
Moses of Silicon Valley. He showed the Promised Land
but he could not be there himself.
But his young people like
the Intel people ended up now, and they made it and
then they split and split and many, many new companies
formed. And he bought the new materials, silicon to
what is now called Silicon Valley- we didn't call it
that time. We had no hope that it would ever get that
name although we worked very hard, understanding this
rather difficult material. He had invented a device,
which could only be made with silicon for complicated
technical reasons. Very complicated science. I worked
on this aspect a lot and he was vain also.
This was one of his personality
traits, the Shockley dial made by the Shockley Transistor
Corporation and it was also a switch and when he set
out in the mid-40s, in the Bell Lab. The idea was we
have to find a better switch, we don't want to have
this mechanical thing that do click click and want to
do this electronically. He found it and he wanted to
do his switch but the others might- Bob Noyce and Gordon
Moore. We now can control this difficult material and
let's make it Transistor. And the time was right, it
was a Sputnik shot and there was a big upsurge in the
technology. The race with the Russians space programme
and so on.
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