| Advance
GDP Estimates for Second Quarter 2003
Advance
estimates show that gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter
2003 contracted by 4.3 per cent, in real terms, over the same period
in 2002. On an annualised quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP fell
by 11.8 per cent, compared with a growth of 1.2 per cent in the
previous quarter.
Gross
Domestic Product at 1995 Market Prices
(* Advance Estimates)
(Percentage change over corresponding period of previous year) |
| |
2Q02 |
3Q02 |
4Q02 |
2002 |
1Q03 |
2Q03* |
| Overall
GDP |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
-4.3 |
| Manufacturing |
13.5 |
15.5 |
9.9 |
8.3 |
5.5 |
-7.5 |
| Construction |
-11.1 |
-11.5 |
-11.9 |
-10.8 |
-10.3 |
-10.9 |
| Services-Producing
Industries |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
-3.0 |
GDP growth in the second quarter was predictably weak as a result
of the weak global environment as well as the SARS outbreak.
The
manufacturing sector is estimated to have contracted by 7.5 per
cent in the second quarter. Output was affected by lingering uncertainty
in the US economy and the relatively weak global electronics market,
which dampened output of info-communications and consumer electronics.
The biomedicals cluster also declined, due to the change in product-mix
of pharmaceutical firms, which produced less high value added intermediate
ingredients during this period compared to the previous year. Lower
air traffic also dampened activities in the aerospace segment.
The
construction sector is estimated to have contracted by 10.9 per
cent, due to the continued correction in capacity.
The
services-producing industries are estimated to have contracted by
3.0 per cent, largely reflecting the impact of SARS on transport,
tourism and consumer-related activities.
However, latest economic data show that near-term outlook will improve.
Financial markets have priced in stronger US economic growth in
the second half of the year, which would lift business sentiments.
Feedback from major pharmaceuticals companies indicates that changes
to the product-mix would boost output in the second half of the
year. With the SARS outbreak being brought under control world-wide,
the aerospace segment and services industries would see better performance
going forward. Some improvements have already been seen in visitor
arrivals and hotel occupancy rates. Barring any adverse external
shocks, economic performance in the second half is expected to improve.
MTI will review the 2003 growth forecast when the full second quarter
data are available. The revised forecast will be announced next
month.
The
preliminary GDP estimates for the second quarter, including sectoral
performances, sources of growth, inflation, employment and productivity,
will be released in August 2003 in the Economic Survey of Singapore.
MINISTRY
OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY
10 July 2003
|
