14th Man On US Most Wanted List For Iraq Surrenders

The 14th man from the US most wanted list of 55 Iraqi leaders has surrendered.

Amer Mohammad Rashid al-Ubaidi, was Iraq's oil minister and a central figure of the country's weapons program.

He's married to Rihab Taba, known as 'Dr Germ', head of Iraq's bio-weapons programme, who has reportedly disappeared.

With Amer Mohammad's surrender, will there be more to come from the wanted list?

Ariel Wee asked Dr. Andrew Vincent, Head of Macquarie University's Middle East program that question.

"Yes, I think clearly, a lot more people are going to surrender. The list is 55 persons long, the key members on the list I think we're unlikely to see surrendering. People such as Saddam Hussein and his sons. But, many of the minor people like Amer Mohammad Rashid al-Ubaidi and some the others who've surrrendered are in Iraq and I think it's quite clear to them that they won't be executed and they probably won't even have to go to trial for war crimes and they want to get on with their lives. So, I think in each case, it's not a simple surrender. Feelers are put out, various movements are made to ensure that they'll be well-treated, and then they voluntarily
give themselves up. What's significant is that so few people on the list have actually been captured."

Q: Dr Vincent, do you think that Saddam Hussein will slip through the fingers of American hands, just like how Osama bin Laden did? There's just absolutely no clue as to where he might be at the moment.

"That's right. That's the 64 thousand dollar question. I've read that Saddam and his two sons have left Iraq, I've read that they've gone to Cuba, they've gone to Russia. I think it's more likely that they're still in Iraq but there are clearly many, many supporters of the regime who are guarding them. There've also been suggestions that they have methods in place to commit suicide if it looks like they're about to be captured. So, whether Saddam Hussein is caught I think is very unlikely. I think it's
almost impossible that he's going to voluntarily surrender himself. So, we could be looking at another Osama bin Laden situation which of course would be deeply embarrassing for the allies."

Q: Now, the coalition forces, especially the US, would definitely be looking at extricating evidence of the 'smoking gun', as the Americans like to call it, from the 14 men who've been either captured or who've surrendered. But, if no physical evidence of biological, chemical or nuclear weapons are going to be found in the time hereafter, how will that change things?

"Well, it probably won't change things very much because we're now presented with a fait accompli. Iraq has been invaded, its government has been overthrown and a reconstruction process is in place. But, for somebody like Tony Blair, I think it's really quite important that the smoking gun is found. And it seems increasingly apparent that there is no smoking gun. Certainly Iraq had a program of mass weapons of destruction but most reports seem to indicate that throughout the 1990s, the program was being scaled down and in fact, dissolved. The difficulty presented to the US and its allies is if they discover evidence of weapons of mass destruction now
after so much time and after weapons weren't used in the war, many people are going to suspect that these weapons were planted. That's why I think it's really important that the UN weapons inspectors be invited back to Iraq."

Q: Earlier you were talking about how the weapons of mass destruction programs might've been dissolved. How much do you think the economic sanctions that were imposed on Iraq after the 1991 Persian Gulf War contributed to that? Stopping the program altogether?

"I think they contributed significantly because it was impossible for the Iraqis to purchase abroad the kind of equipment and the kind of ingredients that were necessary for their program to continue. I think also, there was something of a change of heart in the Iraqi regime and it decided, it made a conscious decision around 1993 or 94 to tone down the programs of weapons of mass destruction. And these are the reports we're getting from all the key Iraqis, both defectors from some years ago and also those who're being captured. And I think it's going to be very
difficult to find this smoking gun."

Dr Andrew Vincent is the Head of Macquarie University's Middle East programme