Post war Iraq:
Will Ahmad Chalabi step into Saddam's shoes?

Much spotlight has fallen on the Iraqi opposition.

They face accusations of division and disorganisation.

But it appears that some groups are quietly drawing up a blue print for a post war Iraq.

Ahmad Chalabi is tipped to be one of the main contenders to step into the shoes of Saddam Hussein.

He leads the opposition Iraqi National Congress and the US has given him a strong backing.

The former banker and Mathematics Professor also has in his corner, the monarchist movement, Sunni Muslims and secular urban democrats.

Mr Chalabi is also certain of the backing of others in Iraq, "If the United States says they are going to support regime change in Iraq, then the Iraqi military will not defend Saddam and will come over to our side in large numbers."

But it could be just the opposite.

Some of the opposition groups that disagree with Chalabi include the Iraqi National Accord, largely composed of former members of President Saddam's Baath party, and one of the two Kurdish parties in opposition.

Jalal Talabani, heads the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, while the Kurdistan Democratic Party has Massoud Barzani as their leaders.

And they are an important group for the opposition as the Kurdish militia control northern Iraq and claim to have 120,000 ready fighters.

US allies in Iraq, Kurds and Shi-ite, but the great fear is Iraq will split into three or more countries, the only way the US can forestall that is to get in there itself and not rely excessively on other alliances.

This means a large force and going in and occupying the country, and the best is where the military strategy follows the political goal, if you rely on the Kurds and they decide to declare independence what do you do?

Saddam Hussein, ironically, holds the opposition together in their dislike for him.

Once he is out of the way, the bitter simmering disputes of the different parties could break apart the opposition, and also Iraq.