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PAKISTAN 2002: TUMULTOUS AND TROUBLED, PAKISTAN PERSERVERES

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Pakistan 2002
India/Sri Lanka 2002
Europe 2002
US 2002

This has been a tumultuous year for Pakistan.

From tensions with India over militancy in Kashmir and nuclear weapons, to the
backlash from the war in Afghanistan, to national elections after three years of
military rule, Pakistan has constantly been in the news.

Channel NewsAsia's Pakistan Correspondent Hasan Zaidi now takes a look back at 2002.

===================================

Watch the video here

As the sun sets on 2002 here in Karachi, a look back at the year that was reveals that this has been an eventful and troubled time for Pakistan.

Most people will remember it now as the year that the administration of General Pervez Musharraf handed back power to a civilian government after three years of military rule.

But there were other significant events during the year as well.

And there will still be many who question how much power the military actually handed over.

The transfer of power from the military to civilians happened after national
elections which were held within three years of General Musharraf s October 1999 coup as stipulated by the Pakistan Supreme Court.

Long dormant political parties sprang to life just as the polls approached.

But by and large the lead up to them was a lacklustre affair.

Part of the reason for this was the widespread perception within the political
parties that the military was trying to engineer a civilian government of its
liking, a charge denied by the government.

Spokesperson for the Pakistan People's Party, Farhatullah Babar says, "General never intended really to relinquish power to civilian government. All that he wanted throughout was a continuation of his regime with of course given a civilian facade. Now, that required that the general Musharraf brings in place a parliament which is under his thumb. That meant that the elections must
be tailored to suit his requirements. So what the government did was, we believe that there was pre-poll rigging, there was polls day rigging and there also was post poll rigging."

But the other reason for the general lack of colour was the military's newly introduced laws which effectively barred many mainstream politicians from
contesting, including the leaders of the two main political parties, former premiers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, both living in exile.

As it was, the results of the elections probably surprised even the establishment which had cast its lot with one pro-Musharraf party.

No political party managed to secure an outright majority and the formation of the government took over one whole tortuous month.

In the end, the army had its way but given the uncertainties of politics in Pakistan, it is still not absolutely clear how stable the new government will be.

The new Prime Minister is veteran and pro-Musharraf politician, Zafarullah
Jamali, but he is dependent on a number of smaller parties for his position.

The biggest surprise, however, came in the shape of the rise of the religious
parties.

Whereas they had struggled to get more than a handful of seats in the entire history of Pakistan, this time they emerged as the third largest force in the national parliament and the largest force in the Frontier province bordering
Afghanistan.

Worryingly for General Pervez Musharraf and the US, whose forces are still
engaged in Afghanistan, the religious parties had run on an overtly anti-American platform, calling for an end to military operations in the region.

This may have played an important element in the success at the polls, but there were other reasons as well.

Pakistani Member of Parliament, Mian Aslam says, "The other major political parties, Pakistan Muslim and Pakistan People's Party, could not deliver when they ruled the government in the past. They could not control inflation, corruption, joblessness, law and order. People were disappointed. When this six-party coalition of religious parties came into being, people saw hope, because these parties have a clean past. They have good vision and workers with solid characters, so a new hope is born."

Farhatullah Babar says, "Marginalisation of the mainstream political parties, created a vacuum and that vacuum was then filled in by the religious parties who were, you know, allowed the opportunity by the military government to re-assert themselves."

There is no denying, however, that popular resentment against what was perceived as US bullying in the war against terrorism, was high in Pakistan, especially in the areas bordering Afghanistan which took the brunt of the anti militant operations.

The crackdown began in earnest early in the year, with General Musharraf
pledging on satellite television to move against militant groups.

His noteworthy speech on January 12, which was commented upon throughout the world, had come in response to American concerns after the September 11 attacks on the US last year and, particularly, rising tensions between India and Pakistan after an attack on the Indian parliament in December 2001.

The Government did move against some notable Pakistani militants, arresting
thousands and banning some groups.

And the anti-militancy drive did achieve some success especially in the arrest
of a number of top-ranking Al-Qaeda fugitives in Pakistan.

Mid-year a top logistics commander of the wanted organisation, Abu Zubaidah, was arrested in Faisalabad while in September another most wanted man, Ramzi bin al Shibh, was arrested after a long gun battle in the city of Karachi.

But the backlash to the drive was also severe.

Two massive bomb blasts took place in Karachi in May and June, allegedly by
suicide bombers.

The first claimed the life of 11 French naval engineers among others, while the second killed 14 Pakistanis outside the US Consulate.

Attacks also took place against Christian missionary schools, hospitals and churches in Murree, Taxila and Islamabad in the north of the country.

It was obvious that the militants were striking back at whatever they could.

Former Pakistani Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider says, "Obviously if there were these militants and extremist groups who have there own idea of grandeur of Islam and they were indulging in extremist activities and if they had their sanctuaries and training camps in Afghanistan for many years. So if you ban them, if you declare them illegal, if you arrest their top leadership, if you ask them to stop their activities, and if they feel that we are siding with the US and coalition forces against terrorism, and Afghanistan, a Muslim country was being targeted where they themselves were there, obviously they will be angry. They will not only turn against the US but they will also turn against the government of Pakistan for the policy of Pakistan which Pakistan has adopted."

But perhaps particularly ghastly was the kidnapping and killing of American Wall
Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl, who was abducted by militants he had gone to interview and later beheaded on tape by his captors.

Some of the accused in the Daniel Pearl case were eventually arrested, tried and convicted.

But the incident badly damaged Pakistan's position in the world and led to many western countries advising their citizens to avoid travelling to the country.

This has had a debilitating effect on the country's economy, increasingly
dependent for a revival on foreign investment.

Economic analysts however still hold out hope.

Economic Analyst, Saqib Sherani says, "The situation Pakistan was experiencing where nothing was working. None of the indicators were moving in the right direction. Directionally Pakistan was moving south. The extend of the fragility was that every passing day saw a depletion on Pakistan s foreign exchange reserves and Pakistan's economy being labelled as default or near default economy. So if you look at that scenario, clearly we are 180 degrees away from that."

Making matters worse for Pakistan s economy this year were the continuing
tensions with India.

The severing of air, train and road links between the two neighbours at the beginning of the year and the continuing nuclear brinkmanship did not help matters.

By the end of the year, tensions had subsided somewhat because of international intervention but matters were still far from normal.

At the centre of it all has been the figure of General Musharraf, Pakistan s
saviour to some, a villain to others.

General Musharraf's image was badly damaged by the farcical referendum early in the year through which he claimed to have been elected Pakistan s president for the next five years.

And it has continued to be tarnished by the allegations of pre-electoral manipulation to put his favourite politicians in power.

But he has also endured the backlash from militants as well as the tough times
with India, sometimes at great personal risk.

The Pakistani Presidential Spokesperson Major General Rashid Qureshi, says, "They are violent, they are trained, and they are killers. So there is no doubt about that. And they would have liked to target the president. That is a fact. We did know that and we also knew that he was under threat and our job, the government and his personal security s job to look after his security which I am
sure they are doing to the best of their ability."

There are many in Pakistan who believe that after the tribulations of this year,
matters can only get better.

They hold out great hope for the guided democracy that General Musharraf will preside over. And Pakistani businessmen are also looking towards the reconstruction of Afghanistan as a way of earning.

But many questions are still to be settled and the political game that the military and its opponents are engaged in, is still to be completely played out.

A war in Iraq, for example, may have unforeseen consequences here. What the future holds in store for Pakistan is still anyone's guess.

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