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WASHINGTON: US envoys who paid a rare visit to Myanmar say the new dialogue will be slow and cautious, but the junta's plans to hold 2010 elections are casting a shadow that could disrupt the delicate process.
Kurt Campbell, the top US diplomat for Asia, and his deputy Scot Marciel spent two days in the country formerly known as Burma, the highest-level US visit since 1995 as part of a new policy of engagement.
The State Department duo has been at pains to temper expectations for any breakthrough and warned the junta that the United States will not ease economic sanctions without progress on democracy.
But the diplomacy could soon get trickier as the junta prepares for elections next year. The last vote in 1990 was swept by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, who has since spent most of her time under house arrest.
Marciel, speaking in Bangkok on Thursday, called for the election – which some observers believe could be held early in the year – to be fair and to include Aung San Suu Kyi's participation.
But the Nobel Peace laureate's National League for Democracy has called for a boycott of the vote, fearing it would be a sham to legitimise the junta which last year pushed through a widely criticised new constitution.
"When US officials tell the regime they must include the opposition in credible, free and fair elections, they are missing the key point," said John Dale, a Myanmar expert at George Mason University.
"For a long time, the opposition has been organising a boycott of the election and that's exactly what the regime is trying to overcome – they want as much participation as possible," he said.
"The longer the United States engages in dialogue about international monitoring of free and fair elections, the more likely it is that we end up lending legitimacy to the election process itself," he said.
But Aung San Suu Kyi has changed tact before. As the United States opened the dialogue, she accepted that actions by the junta could eventually lead to a relaxation of sanctions, an easing of her strong past support of such economic measures.
Yet just communicating with her remains difficult. The junta allowed Aung San Suu Kyi to meet Campbell and Marciel at a Yangon luxury hotel, marking the first time she has appeared outside her home and prison since 2003.
"I think that role and the attitude of Aung San Suu Kyi is very important to a change in US policy toward Burma," said David Steinberg, a professor at Georgetown University.
Steinberg said the junta may try to release Aung San Suu Kyi just before or just after the election.
"I don't think that's acceptable to the US, because they want something more," Steinberg said.
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have launched a policy of dialogue around the world, with the motto that they will extend a hand to all who "unclench their fist".
Senator Jim Webb, a leading proponent of engaging Myanmar who met in August with junta supremo Than Shwe, said he was encouraged by Campbell and Marciel's visit to Myanmar.
He said that the administration should take a "step-by-step" approach to encourage Myanmar "to become a responsible member of the world community".
"The administration's engagement with the government of Burma is an important step toward improving both US-Burma relations and the living conditions of the Burmese people," he said.
But Aung Din, a former political prisoner who heads the US Campaign for Burma advocacy group, said that Obama needed to follow up by raising Myanmar at the highest levels on his upcoming visit to Asia.
Obama will hold a summit with Southeast Asian leaders and travel to China, which remains a close commercial and military partner of Myanmar despite the opprobrium for the junta in the West.
"I want to be optimistic. But I will wait until President Obama's visit to Asia next week," Aung Din said.
"Without strong involvement by President Obama and Secretary Clinton in organising our neighbours to stand together on Burma, Kurt's mission would not be successful," he said.
- AFP/so
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