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BRUSSELS - A surprise Chinese missile test that destroyed a satellite for the first time will not shake the world's strategic balance but could ignite a new race for "Star Wars"-like weapons, experts say.
The test, unconfirmed by Beijing, is "a quite predictable consequence of United States activities in space over the last 20 years," said Siemon Wezeman, armaments expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
China has believed for some time that the US spy, surveillance or infrared observation satellites suspected of hovering permanently over its territory represent a direct threat.
For Washington, however, the satellites do not directly target China but are a necessary precaution to confront a potential adversary whose economic and military might is steadily growing.
While Beijing considers its anti-satellite research programme to be a purely defensive one, it is seen, at best, as a destabilising factor to some states or, at worst, a clear offensive threat.
Witness the diplomatic outcry against the test, which took place on January 11 according to US magazine Aviation Week and Space Technology and was confirmed by the White House.
In itself, the missile strike against an old weather satellite "does not demonstrate any particular technological advance on the part of the Chinese," said Wezeman.
Nor does it violate any existing treaty, experts have agreed. Even Britain, which criticised the test for the debris it might leave in space, recognised that the strike did not appear to breach international law.
The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 bans the build up or stockage of military weapons -- including nuclear arms or weapons of mass destruction -- in orbit and their installation on the moon.
"It does not stop someone shooting down a satellite," Wezeman noted.
The United States also has its own anti-satellite programme ranging from laser cannon to satellite destroying missiles.
"The US military relies heavily on satellites. Without them the Americans would feel blind. This Chinese act could push them to interpret the treaty banning space weapons in their own way," the expert said.
"The United States, if it decides that the treaty only bans 'offensive' weapons, could be tempted to attach 'self-defence' systems to their satellites," he explained.
This, he said, could "spark a race for such measures and countermeasures".
But not all agree.
Jean-Pierre Maulny, deputy director of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris, said the opposite might occur.
"Because defence systems for satellites, which are fragile and vulnerable, would be expensive, this test could start a period of reflection about ways to avoid an indirect military build up in space," he said.
"The Chinese are letting the Americans know that they have the capability to destroy satellites and to compensate for any arms inferiority, and the Americans are letting people know they know what's going on," he said.
"The message has got through to both sides."
At NATO, a military expert said that the Chinese test "could give ideas to others and bothers the Americans because their chain of command and the way they conduct operations rely on observation and communication satellites."
"The other point of concern," the expert said, "is the backdrop of tensions in Asia in which the test was carried out, and the doubts it raises about China's military budget, which could be larger than Beijing admits."
At the high end, China's military budget is estimated by foreign experts to be around 80 billion dollars. The government puts the figure at 30 billion dollars.
- AFP /ls
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