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WASHINGTON: As uncertainty surrounds this weekend's Taiwan election, one thing remains clear: no matter who wins, the US government will be able to breathe easier once it is over.
Going by their more moderate approach to the China question, candidates Ma Ying-jeou of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party and Frank Hsieh of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are unlikely to give US officials sleepless nights such as those they had under outgoing pro-independence president Chen Shui-bian.
China, which views the island as rebel territory, has threatened to retake it by force if Taiwan were to formally declare independence.
And any Chinese invasion of Taiwan would raise the prospect of a Sino-American war, potentially even a nuclear war, because US law compels Washington to come to the aid of Taiwan if its security is threatened.
"I think with respect to Taiwan-US bilateral relations, based on what the candidates have said, there would be some confidence that the strategic divergence that had occurred in the last couple of years would end," Richard Bush, former de facto US ambassador to Taipei, said ahead of the March 22 vote.
"We could have more confidence about the basic intentions of the new Taiwan government – whoever led it – that it was going to be more consistent with ours," said Bush, now an Asian expert at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.
Surveys show Harvard-educated Ma enjoying a lead over former premier Hsieh, two months after the Kuomintang crushed Chen's DPP in parliamentary polls.
Taiwan split from mainland China in 1949 after the Kuomintang lost a civil war to the communists.
Ma wants much closer ties with China and is seen as more Beijing-friendly than Hsieh, although both have said reunification is not up for discussion.
Washington seems comfortable with the two candidates.
The United States "will work within the parameters of our existing relationship with whoever is elected by the Taiwan people," State Department spokesman Tom Casey said on Wednesday.
Whether whoever wins will be a relief to Washington, a department official said, "Sometimes we look forward more than others to work with a new government."
The US military is also looking forward to the election, with the top commander of US troops in Asia Admiral Timothy Keating saying he was "cautiously optimistic that a little bit of steam will leave the kettle" after the polls.
Chen had earned the ire of both Beijing and Washington for his string of controversial policies, especially his decision to hold a referendum alongside the presidential polls on whether the island should seek UN membership under the name of Taiwan.
Taiwan, under its official name the Republic of China, lost its UN seat to the mainland in 1971 and is now only recognized diplomatically by around 20 countries.
Beijing considers attempts to rejoin the UN using its official title as pushing for independence.
Although policy decisions that both candidates had taken represent some departure from Chen's hardline stance and gave an opportunity for mending US-Taiwan ties, Randy Schriver, a former senior State Department official, said it was "too soon to say that problems will be solved and difficulties will be ended".
But more importantly, Schriver said, the elections would provide an opportunity for the United States to pursue a "more balanced policy" with Taiwan, a key ally in Asia.
"I think we have been overly solicitous of China's concerns and too much of their bidding here and we have contributed to this souring of Taiwan-US relations on a level just about equal to what problems emanated from Taiwan," he said.
"Overall we lost a perspective that this is a young democracy."
US President George W. Bush entered the White House in 2001 with a strong policy on Taiwan, which he wanted to use as an effective symbol of democracy for Asia, particularly China.
But his priorities changed as he grappled with the Iraq war, North Korea and Iran's nuclear ambitions, all of which required good ties with China.
"The question in Washington is whether it makes strategic sense to encourage a Taiwan-China rapprochement and to acquiesce in a ever closer relationship between them or whether there is some geopolitical utility in a Taiwan-China relationship that progresses more slowly," said John Tkacik, a former China expert in the State Department.
There is a feeling among some that a Taiwan that moves quickly toward a new relationship with China brings stability to the region in the short term.
"But I myself tend to worry about the long term," Tkacik said.
- AFP/so
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