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BANGKOK: Ousted Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra's retreat into exile marks a dark day in his turbulent political career, analysts say, but could be a chance for his allies and enemies to heal rifts in society.
After a weekend of intense rumours, Thaksin on Monday skipped a required court appearance and flew to England, saying he believed political interference in Thailand would rob him of a fair trial on corruption charges.
The billionaire businessman launched a wide-ranging attack on the justice system, which has been piling up the cases against Thaksin and his wife Pojaman since the September 2006 coup.
The couple's exit, relayed to Thai media in a handwritten note, followed Thaksin's confident homecoming in February this year when he fell to his knees and kissed the ground ending 18 months in self-imposed exile.
"His enemies executed a political decapitation of Thaksin; it is practically impossible for him to return to power," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst from Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.
"He's not coming back any time in the foreseeable future."
The Supreme Court has so far agreed to hear three corruption cases against Thaksin, and more are pending.
On July 31, a criminal court convicted Pojaman of tax evasion and sentenced her to three years in jail.
"I think he was hurt by the court's verdict against his wife," said Thawee Suraritikul, a professor at Sukhothai Thammathirat University.
But Chris Baker, a Thai historian, said that the tycoon's hold over the kingdom will not necessarily fade.
"The story has got a couple more episodes yet," he told AFP. "There is some defiance in his dramatic handwritten note ... When you see leaders like this, they live in the public imagination when you take them out of the country."
Former policeman Thaksin, 59, was a divisive leader who changed Thailand's political landscape, winning 2001 elections on a platform which for the first time addressed rural voters' concerns.
He extended his grip in 2005 polls, but throughout his two terms Thaksin dodged allegations of nepotism and corruption, and the tax-free sale of his company in January 2006 brought massive street protests.
Thaksin called new elections, but the generals stepped in first.
Although the old power cliques in the military, palace and bureaucracy seemed determined to wipe Thaksin off the political map and erase his influence, the majority of the citizens appeared to disagree.
In elections that brought an end to military rule in December last year, a new outfit called the People Power Party (PPP) emerged, made up of former members of Thaksin's by-then disbanded Thai Rak Thai party.
Led by veteran politician Samak Sundaravej -- a gruff right-winger with a common touch - they scored a comfortable win in the polls, further infuriating the middle class and elite.
Just months after Samak formed his coalition government in February, Thakin's old foes in the royalist People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) were back on the streets.
They want Samak to resign despite his mandate from the electorate as they claim he is running the country on behalf of Thaksin.
And although the bullish PAD have said they will continue their rallies, analysts say Thaksin's exit may help ease tensions.
“The government will have the chance to show they are not Thaksin's proxy," said Thawee.
Investors will hope the news can calm jitters in the stock market, which has fallen nearly 18 per cent since street protests broke out in late May.
"The political direction in Thailand will become clearer. Investors will feel reassured about Thai politics," said Kavee Chukitkasem, an analyst at Kasikorn Securities.
What the PPP has to do, says Thitinan, is hold itself together without the guiding hand of Thaksin and prevent internal power tussles.
"All along we've heard Thaksin's opponents saying that the Thaksin regime is the root cause of Thailand's predicament," he said.
"Now he's pretty much finished politically - will that allow for some kind of reconciliation, that unity to take place and go forward? It could."
- AFP/yb
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