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BANGKOK: Thailand is destined for years of political unrest and uncertainty, analysts say, after protests triggered a state of emergency in Bangkok and forced the humiliating shutdown of a major summit.
The kingdom's colour-coded political turmoil was again thrust into the international spotlight when red-shirted anti-government activists stormed a high-profile meeting of Asian leaders on Saturday, forcing its cancellation.
With the demonstrations escalating on Sunday, tanks deployed on the streets of Bangkok, reviving memories of the 2006 ouster of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra in a military coup, the trigger for three years of turmoil.
As the embattled current prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, announced that the protesters could face the use of force, analysts said the embarrassing cancellation of the summit in Pattaya would only result in more division.
"This summit incident will deepen the rifts in Thai society. Thailand will be divided and unstable for the next few years," said Somchai Phagaphasvivat, an academic at Thailand's respected Thammasat University.
"Anyone could become leader in the future - even a junta government."
Thaksin, living in exile avoiding jail for corruption but still influential, is at the centre of the rift: he is loved by the rural and urban poor, represented by the so-called "Red Shirts" who forced the closure of the summit.
On the other side is the powerful Bangkok-based cliques in the palace, military and bureaucracy, ostensibly represented by the "Yellow Shirts" who loathe the billionaire and side with the current Abhisit administration.
The British-born Abhisit has only been in power since December, when a court turfed out the previous pro-Thaksin government, but, like those before him, he has failed to come good on his promise to unite the country.
Thailand's fourth prime minister in the space of a year, analysts say Abhisit's own personal fate matters less than the need to find a long-term solution that will restore peace once and for all.
Without it, tourists and foreign investors will increasingly be scared off by Thailand, observers say, further hurting the economy as it hurtles towards recession, which in turn would only result in more strife.
"The fact that the summit has been postponed now is humiliating for the government," said analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.
"It shows the world that last year was not a one-off," Thitinan said, referring to protests against the then-government that saw yellow-shirted demonstrators force the closure of Bangkok's airports.
"This is going to go on for some time, this kind of mob rule," Thitinan added.
Another analyst said only reform of a political system dominated by patronage, provincial strongmen and the influence of a shadowy elite would provide the permanent stability the country so badly needs.
"Politics in Thailand is not a public affair, it is an extension of families and their cliques. This is the building block of the entire system," said Michael Nelson, a visiting academic at Chulalongkorn University.
"Then we have the other elite groups like the privy council (the advisors to King Bhumibol Adulyadej) and the military, and what they do behind the scenes - which is not for public consumption." - AFP/de
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