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SEOUL - The health of North Korea's ageing leader Kim Jong-Il is clearly worsening, analysts said Tuesday, but some cast doubt on a media report that he has life-threatening cancer.
South Korean TV news channel YTN said Monday the 67-year-old head of the isolated nuclear-armed nation has pancreatic cancer and may not live more than five years.
The YTN report, which came three days after Japanese network TBS reported Kim has a "serious disorder" of the pancreas, said he was diagnosed with cancer at the time of his reported stroke last August.
Two Seoul-based analysts cast doubt on the cancer report, citing the reported rise in the number of Kim's trademark "field guidance" trips.
"It seems to lack credibility," Yang Moo-Jin, of the University of North Korean Studies, told AFP.
"He could not have endured the workload if he had pancreatic cancer on top of his post-stroke illness and his chronic diabetes."
Kim has made 87 reported trips to workplaces or military units so far this year compared to 57 in the same period last year.
"I don't think it would be possible for Kim to provide 'field guidance' if he had pancreatic cancer," said Kim Yong-Hyun of Dongguk University.
"There are no unusual movements in North Korea which may indicate its top leader is suffering from cancer."
But analysts believe the leader did indeed suffer a stroke and is in poor health now.
State TV last week showed a gaunt Kim limping slightly and with thinning hair when he appeared at a memorial ceremony for his late father.
"I'm sure that he had a stroke last August," said Dongguk's Kim, adding the leader's health had worsened since his initial recovery.
Baek Seung-Joo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses said TV footage showed Kim limping slightly -- a post-stroke symptom -- with his hand swollen and his hair thinning visibly.
But Baek said only Kim's personal doctor knows for sure if he has cancer. "The outside world can hardly know about it."
Kim Yeon-Chul of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute said talk of the leader's health is taboo in the intensely secretive communist state and "all we hear about it is nothing more than rumours."
The topic is attracting intense interest, since the world does not know who comes next as ruler of the nuclear-armed and missile-proliferating state -- or even whether there could be a power struggle.
The North's behaviour has grown notably harder-line in recent months, with missile and nuclear tests, a decision to quit nuclear disarmament talks and threats against South Korea.
Several US and South Korean officials believe Kim is staging a show of strength to bolster his authority as he tries to put in place a succession plan involving one of his sons.
Seoul intelligence officials have been quoted as saying he has nominated his 26-year-old youngest son Jong-Un.
Analysts said there are no strong signs of an imminent power handover to a son, although Baek believes Kim may be handling most state affairs through his increasingly powerful brother-in-law Jang Song-Thaek.
Yang Moo-Jin, in contrast, believes Kim is undoubtedly in control and handling state affairs himself.
However, he said the leader is fretting because his health is not improving and he is making no progress in normalising ties with the United States.
"The North's April long-range rocket launch and its May nuclear test shows Kim Jong-Il's increasing impatience."
Dongguk's Kim said there is no firm sign that Jong-Un has been designated as next leader.
"The North's belligerence is not necessarily linked to the succession issue," he told AFP.
"It rather relates to the North's strategic decision to try to make a 'big deal' with the United States in normalising diplomatic ties."
- AFP/ir
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