| |
| |
 |
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
WASHINGTON : Emerging Asian economies, driven mainly by China and India, will expand at a brisk but slightly lower pace during 2007 as US influence declines, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.
The region will see 8.4 percent growth, down marginally on last year's 8.9 percent, because a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the United States is set to have only a muted effect, the IMF said in its latest global report.
"Regional economies have less direct exposure to the United States than at the beginning of the decade, while their exposure to China has grown," the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report.
It pointed out that in the period from 2000 to 2005, exports to China as a percentage of all exports had grown for all countries, in some cases sharply.
"Real (economic) growth is expected to ease this year and next, but remains at a high level," said the report, issued shortly before the 10th anniversary of a financial crisis that shook the region.
"This reflects some moderation in growth in China and India in response to policy tightening."
China's economy, the world's fourth-largest, is expected to grow 10 percent in 2007 and 9.5 percent in 2008, down from 10.7 percent in 2006, according to the report.
India meanwhile is forecast to expand by 8.4 percent this year and by 7.8 percent in 2008, down from 9.2 percent in 2006, the IMF said, while cautioning that the rising Asian powers could again perform better than expected.
"China and India have continued to outperform expectations," it noted. "A similar pattern could recur in 2007.
"It is not clear that the Chinese economy will slow consistently as a result of limited tightening measures introduced in 2006, while in India the strong momentum could be sustained despite recent interest rate increases."
The US economy, traditionally a major engine for growth in the region, is having less of an impact, according to the report.
"At this stage, the US slowdown is being driven by the housing sector, with its effects on overall demand for exports from Asia likely to be muted.
"In contrast the global demand for electronic goods, which is important for regional exports ... has remained generally well supported despite some moderation toward late 2006," it added.
"The importance of the United States as a destination for exports has been declining in most countries - with the important exception of China - and the role of intra-regional trade has been rising.
Indonesia, the region's third-most populous country, was likely to see growth pick up from 5.5 percent last year to 6.0 percent this year, the IMF said.
An important factor for that was a strengthening in domestic demand spurred by interest-rate cuts, it said.
Other Southeast Asian economies would mostly see marginally slower growth, with Thailand's economy expanding 4.5 percent this year from 5.0 percent last year, and Singapore's growth down more steeply from 7.9 to 5.5 percent.
Further north, Taiwan's economic growth will slow from 4.6 to 4.2 percent, the report predicted, and South Korea's from 5.3 to 4.6 percent.
A decade after the Asian financial crisis, the report warned that financial markets in the region remained vulnerable to any unanticipated rise in global risk aversion.
It also highlighted emerging threats to growth, saying bird flu, which has killed about 170 people across the world but mostly in Asia, continued to pose a risk in the region. - AFP/de
|
