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HO CHI MINH CITY: Selling corn on a pavement in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City may be a world away from Wall Street or London's Square Mile, but Le Thi Hoa says she too has been hit by the economic slowdown.
From taxi drivers and street sellers to office workers and market speculators, people here uniformly agree that the world's financial problems have washed onto Vietnam's shores, and the poor are suffering.
"I have not sold much over the past three months," said 37-year-old Hoa, her skin weathered by the years plying her trade on the dusty and frenetic streets of the former Saigon, Vietnam's economic centre.
Hoa said last year she was earning more than 100,000 dong (six dollars) a day, but she now pulls in less than 80,000.
"Everybody is talking about the global economic crisis. Everybody is in more difficulties than before, and I am no exception," she said, managing to muster a good-natured laugh despite the hardship.
Although Vietnam has changed rapidly in the last decade, it remains poor and mainly agrarian, with experts warning the slowdown threatens to stunt development and plunge millions of Vietnamese back into poverty.
About 12 million among a population of 86 million already live in poverty and countless more are hovering perilously close to it, latest government figures show.
John Hendra, United Nations Resident Coordinator in Vietnam, told AFP it was clear the country was feeling the effects of the global slowdown -- and it was the poorest who would pay the heaviest price.
"While there is currently little hard data to base projections on, the most recent drop in imports, export growth, freight traffic and international tourist visits in February suggests that a significant slowdown is under way in Vietnam," Hendra told AFP.
"Like other open developing economies, Vietnam is affected by falling demand for exports from the United States, Japan and EU, which together consume 60 per cent of its exports," he said.
"What is clear now though is that it will affect employment and also poverty levels as many Vietnamese families subsist on incomes only marginally above the poverty line and hence are at real risk of falling back into poverty."
Even though Vietnam's banking sector is still relatively insulated and therefore less exposed to the global crisis, its economy is more and more integrated and relies increasingly on exports.
GDP growth fell to 6.2 per cent in 2008, the lowest level in almost a decade and a sharp drop from the 8.5 per cent of 2007.
Meanwhile, Vietnam's ministry of labour fears up to 400,000 workers could lose their jobs this year.
Ayumi Konishi, the Asian Development Bank's Country Director for Vietnam, said the economic turmoil "will inevitably have adverse impact on Vietnam's growth and it would mean that its continued efforts to reduce rural and urban poverty will be constrained."
The latest government figures put the numbers living in poverty at around 13 per cent of the population as of 2008 -- or about 12 million people. The rate is sharply lower than the more than 60 per cent in 1990.
Vietnam defines poverty as a monthly average expenditure per person of less than 200,000-270,000 dong, depending on where people live. This equates to less than about 40 cents a day.
But not everyone is pessimistic about the year ahead, with several business leaders pointing out that although growth is slowing, it is still strong, with the government aiming for 6.5 per cent growth in 2009.
"We are not immune to the global economic problems but Vietnam is proving to be surprisingly resilient," said Tom Tobin, chief executive of HSBC Vietnam, in Ho Chi Minh City.
"I think Vietnam will bounce back pretty quickly."
That is of little consolation to Hoang Viet, 23, who returned to impoverished central Vietnam in search of work after leaving his job in Ho Chi Minh City, where he earned from 900,000 dong a month -- 1.5 dollars a day.
In the same predicament in central Quang Ngai province -- 90 per cent of the poor live in rural areas, according to the UN -- is Nguyen Thi Be Thuong, who like Viet lives in a stone-floor building with no electricity or water.
"Life has become more difficult in these last few months. It's difficult to find good jobs with a good income and bosses who treat you fairly," the 23-year-old said.
- AFP/yt
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