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YEREVAN: Ex-Soviet Armenia is deeply split following bloody post-election unrest and may face years of instability if a solution is not found quickly, analysts said.
"Armenia is facing its most difficult political situation since its independence" in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union, independent political analyst David Petrosian said.
Riot police clashed on Saturday with thousands of protesters who had rallied for 11 consecutive days against Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian's win in a February 19 presidential election.
Despite the leading Western observer mission saying the vote had mostly met international standards, protesters claimed the election was rigged to ensure Sarkisian's victory over opposition leader and former president Levon Ter-Petrosian.
Seven civilians and one police officer were killed as police fired tear gas and live ammunition into the air and protesters fought back with petrol bombs, sticks and stones. Dozens were injured, many from gunshot wounds.
Outgoing President Robert Kocharian ordered a 20-day state of emergency following the unrest, banning public demonstrations and censoring the news.
While many in the capital Yerevan had been expecting police to crack down on protesters, ordinary Armenians were stunned by the scale of the clashes and death toll.
"Polarisation in Armenian society is now very deep. And after this level of violence it will be very challenging for all sides to bring the situation back to normal," said Magdalena Frichova, the Caucasus director for the International Crisis Group think tank.
"It's extremely difficult to predict what will happen next."
This mountainous country of about three million people – wedged between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran and Turkey – is no stranger to political turbulence.
In 1999, armed gunmen stormed parliament and killed seven high-ranking officials, including the prime minister.
Nearly every election since independence has been followed by mass protests and Ter-Petrosian himself sent tanks into the streets to quell demonstrations following his re-election in 1996.
But recent events have marked a new level of tension.
"Refusing to recognize the results of elections and protests are part of Armenian political culture," analyst Alexander Iskandarian of the Caucasus Media Institute said.
"But Saturday's riots marked a new peak.... Ter-Petrosian is becoming more and more radical and wants nothing less than the presidency," he said.
Analysts said that with no signs Ter-Petrosian is ready to back down, it's unclear how the country will emerge from political deadlock. Authorities have already arrested some of the opposition's leadership, including two lawmakers on charges of attempting a coup d'etat.
But short of making large-scale arrests, tens of thousands of disgruntled Ter-Petrosian supporters will remain deeply opposed to Sarkisian's leadership, analysts said.
Much will depend, analysts said, on how the international community responds to the recent unrest.
After initially backing the vote, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe may choose to be harsher in a final election report due very soon, Petrosian said.
A negative report could give the opposition fresh ammunition to challenge the result, he said, while continued backing for the election could convince the opposition it has no hope.
"Everything depends on the international community," Petrosian said.
- AFP/so
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