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US dollar strengthens on risk aversion
Posted: 21 November 2009 0640 hrs

  Euro and US dollar notes.
 
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NEW YORK - The US dollar rose against most of its rivals on Friday as investors looked to hunker down with safe-haven assets amid fresh concerns about the strength of global economic recovery, analysts said.

The euro dropped to 1.4860 dollars at 2200 GMT from 1.4922 late in New York on Thursday.

Against the Japanese currency, also seen as a safe haven, the dollar eased slightly to 88.92 yen from 88.99 yen late on Thursday.

"The dollar is again better bid across the board while the commodity and growth leveraged currencies are again the laggards as the market appears reluctant to take on any new risk, and if anything look like they are content to take risk off the books as we head into year end," said Jon Gencher at BMO Capital Markets.

Fred Dickson at DA Davidson said governments around the world, especially in Asia, are voicing concerns about the weak dollar and its impact on global imbalances.

"Global concerns continue to rise about an emerging global asset bubble fueled primarily by the US Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy," he said.

"We read about reports that officials in India, South Korea and Indonesia are considering policy steps, including direct controls, to limit the flow of hot speculative money into their stock and real estate markets."

He said governments in Asia "are concerned about speculators driving their currency up too far and fast, thus restricting export outflows due to currency appreciation and increasing volatility of financial institutions and instruments in these countries."

The Bank of Japan meanwhile wrapped up a monetary policy meeting Friday, leaving its key lending rate at 0.1 percent to fight stubborn deflation.

"Given that official concerns about deflation are intensifying, interest rates are unlikely to go up for a long while," said Mitul Kotecha, an analyst at French investment bank Calyon.

"We only look for the first rate hike to take place in the second quarter of 2011."

Sacha Tihanyi at Scotia Capital said the promise of low rates from Japan could allow the yen to regain favor as a "carry trade" currency.

"We feel that weak domestic demand and downward price pressure increases the risk that the yen eventually recaptures its mantle as the world's favourite carry trade funding currency, though some would say that the dollar now holds this title," he said.

"With rates extremely low and unlikely to increase substantially over the next year, the yen will struggle to find a reason to rally on any factor other than risk aversion and broad based dollar weakness."

In late New York trade, the dollar had firmed to 1.0174 Swiss francs from 1.0127 Thursday.

The pound was at 1.6503 dollars after 1.6661.

- AFP /ls

 


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