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WASHINGTON: India's Congress is voting on the US-India nuclear deal on Tuesday, with reports suggesting it is going to be a very close result. It could lead to early elections being called in India.
Meanwhile, in the US Congress there are doubts about whether this deal can be pushed through during the Bush administration.
Supporters of the US-India nuclear deal in Washington view it as an opportunity to cement closer ties with an important strategic partner and bring India into alignment with international nuclear agreements.
However, even the supporters are concerned. Congress approved the deal back in 2006.
US Congressman, John Crowley, said: "It's been a long time since that happened, and it's been slow going, and I understand some of the complications that have arisen in India. But I don't want to say I am terribly disappointed, but I am somewhat disappointed that it did not move in a faster way in India."
There is a further set of complications too. For the agreement to go through, the UN's nuclear watchdog, IAEA, and the Nuclear Suppliers' group must provide separate approval.
Then the final deal must be debated and voted on again in the US Congress. But with the presidential election coming up, the congressional calendar has been squeezed in Washington, raising the prospect of the deal being passed over to the next administration.
So what would the next president do?
Sanjay Puri, Chairman US India Political Action Committee, said: "Senator McCain has actually come out strongly in favour of this nuclear agreement. That tells you that he believes in the strategic nature of this relationship."
Senator Obama voted for the deal in 2006, but has been far less willing to show support since then.
Channel NewsAsia has asked Barack Obama's Senate and campaign offices for comment, but his position on whether he will support this deal has not been made on record so far.
Non-proliferation experts said that once India is able to supply its civilian programme with foreign uranium, it can concentrate its domestic supply solely on military applications, presenting a potential political dilemma for Obama.
Henry Sokolski, Executive Director, Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center, said: "He's very keen on the comprehensive test ban. You can't do that and go ahead with this deal and overlook the problems."
Three years ago, the US-India nuclear agreement was hailed as historic. But now the chances of finally completing it during this Congress is running out. - CNA/vm
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