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Security is high on the agenda when Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asian leaders meet Thursday. Fears of terrorism, it was rumoured, had led to a postponement of the meeting and the Filipino hosts have redoubled efforts to keep it safe from attacks.
A Nov 23 draft document for the summit singles out the need for cooperation in counter-terrorism and a possible declaration of the ASEAN Convention on Counter Terrorism. This is a timely reminder after the New Year's Eve bombings in Bangkok. Concerns also lurk over the nuclear weapon capabilities of North Korea and the reclusive regime in Myanmar.
But issues of security and terrorism are being unwittingly complicated by a related development. As the demand for energy rises along with global oil prices and geopolitics in the Middle East remains unstable, more and more countries in Asia are looking at the option of nuclear power.
The economics of nuclear power seem favourable in the short term. Nuclear plants are calculated to currently generate power at 1.5 US cents per kilowatt-hour (2.3 Singapore cents). This is less than half of what coal and natural gas suck in.
The drive to remain competitive has led some to think that it is inevitable that South-east Asian governments will go nuclear.
Indonesia is perhaps at the forefront of this trend. The country plans a US$8 billion ($12.2 billion) investment to construct four 1,000-megawatt plants by 2016, with candidate sites on the Muria peninsula in central Java and in Gorontalo province on Sulawesi island. This plan has recently received the helping hand of Russia, South Korea and Australia and even an endorsement by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Environmentalists, however, remain unconvinced that Indonesia is prepared for nuclear power. There are concerns over possible natural disasters, given the seismic activity in Java and other parts of the country. Moreover, there are issues of cost and waste disposal, and man-made disasters. Parts of Indonesia's main island, Java, are still affected by "mud flows" that are thought to be caused, at least in part, by nearby drilling without sufficient precautions.
Mistakes with nuclear plants have been made, after all, by the former Soviet Union, Japan and the United States, and safety concerns for plants in developing countries are real.
Another factor complicating matters in Indonesia and the region is that these nuclear plants would be prime targets for terrorist attacks. And the misuse of uranium enrichment and spent waste from the plants can lead to radiological devices known as "dirty bombs".
In this context, what Indonesia and Australia do in the coming months will be a litmus test. Australia faces a watershed moment with plans to link uranium development and exports with its own nuclear development plans. These look set to feature in Australia's coming national elections. Australia's policies can heat or cool the nuclear ambitions of Indonesia and the region - the Aussie-RI Lombok Agreement two months ago and exports of Aussie uranium to China worth A$1 billion ($1.2 billion) in the coming months being cases in point.
Given this, the nuclear power option should not be rushed. More should be done to consider how policies for security, energy and the environment should best intersect.
The recent wave of nuclear development sweeping across Asia and the Middle East makes this more urgent. There is also the worrisome scenario of Asian nuclear proliferation, following North Korea's bomb tests, and the earlier Indian and Pakistani examples.
The risk of nuclear terrorism and weapons proliferation remains real. Researchers at the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting last month estimate that a nuclear conflict between two nations would affect three million to 17 million lives and bring about a marked cool-down of the planet with massive crop failures.
More efforts to manage risk are needed, and some have already started. These include the decision to establish a new study panel for cooperation in nuclear energy in Asia at the Seventh Ministerial Meeting Forum for Nuclear Cooperation in Asia two months ago and an inaugural regional seminar hosted by Japan and the IAEA to discuss measures against nuclear terrorism in Asia.
ASEAN has a strong record against nuclear weapons, in the South-east Asia Nuclear-Weapon Free Zone, which also outlines a regime to help ensure high safety and security measures for nuclear energy.
Such efforts favour regional dialogue and cooperation, with increased public awareness, rather than unilateral and hush-hush manoeuvres to hasten down the nuclear path.
East Asian governments can and must address energy needs to progress economically. But some of these efforts can attempt to be green and concurrently tackle concerns with local pollution and wider global climate change predictions. More work is needed on alternative, clean energy.
For larger countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, the issue often is also the efficiency and cost of distribution and the energy grid, and not simply its generation. Such efforts can potentially balance energy needs with security and environmental concerns.
Nuclear power can sometimes worsen the environment and increase insecurities.
The greener path to energy security needs to be explored.
Simon Tay is chairman and Gavin Chua a researcher at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. - TODAY/st
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