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SINGAPORE: News of Mas Selamat Kastari's audacious breakout from the Whitley Road Detention Centre has been a startling and depressing turn of events in Singapore's efforts against terrorism. This unfortunate episode is likely to have wide repercussions, strategically and operationally.
In light of Mas Selamat's brazen disappearing act, there may be a tendency by some to viscerally turn to unconstructive and retrospective finger-pointing. This, in our opinion, is unfruitful.
What is more important and useful is to address the larger question of ramifications.
There are several points to ponder.
For a start, it is likely that Mas Selamat's escape will be painted and hailed by other members of the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) as an act of divine intervention: The "narrative" of how Mas Selamat, with the odds stacked against him, was able to miraculously beat Singapore's security system with spiritual assistance.
In the same way that some extremists perceive Osama bin Laden's continued elusiveness from security forces — despite massive rewards and state-of-the-art intelligence technologies — as the "will of God", Mas Selamat's escape may well be interpreted in the same "theological" bent.
Indeed, like-minded individuals or groups with similar agendas to those of the JI may opportunistically hijack and exploit the "Mas Selamat escape" storyline for their own recruitment and indoctrination purposes.
Second, for the past few years, the JI has suffered a series of major setbacks. The arrests of scores of JI members, including prominent figures such as Abu Dujana, Hambali and Zarkasih, meant that while JI remains a strategic threat, its operational capability has been severely decimated.
It is possible the JI will see Mas Selamat's escape as some sort of an operational watershed that suggests a turning of the tide — a timely psychological shot in the arm for the morale and spirit of their cadres. The longer he remains at large, the greater his legend in regional terrorist circles.
This point should be noted because Mas Selamat is one of few JI radicals with bona fide "strategic potential" — someone well capable of re-generating and re-orientating a terrorist cell around him.
The third issue is whether regional counter-terrorism cooperation with Singapore will be affected: Mas Selamat, after all, escaped under Singapore's charge after being handed over by the Indonesians.
Of course, it cannot be denied that Singapore's generally strong reputation in homeland security matters has taken a hit; yet it is also equally far-fetched to say that this reputation — founded on robust fundamentals and a sterling track record — would be severely dented just because of one incident.
In fact, if there is a full and fair inquiry into the reasons behind the security lapse and as well as the preventive measures to be taken, to ensure no such incident happens again, then some good may actually come out of it. For instance the publication of a Government White Paper, like the one on the JI put out in January 2003, would not only benefit the operational agencies within Singapore and the region, but also signify a transparent and forward-looking attitude towards the whole episode.
Finally, Mas Selamat may have left inadvertent footprints that could prove invaluable to counter-terrorism agencies, and offer insights into a wider network, if any, that may lend him support.
Perhaps the role of unknown self-radicalised supporters with no institutional links to the JI, but who nevertheless have bought into Mas Selamat's "Global Jihad" vision, and played some role in his escape.
We must recognise that the war on terror is a long-term one; one cannot expect an unbroken string of counter-terrorism successes. There will be ebbs and flows.
Enduring success in the ongoing campaign against the JI and its ideological bedfellows — both known and unknown — must involve a range of measures well beyond tightening detention processes.
Ultimately, what matters is that Singapore and its friends in the region, rally together and keep faith in the ideals of tolerance and reason, till the threat of radicalism — self or otherwise — is overcome.
Kumar Ramakrishna is associate professor and head of the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS) at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University. Author of two books on counter-terrorism, he is currently working on a study of terrorist motivations in South-east Asia. Hoo Tiang Boon is an associate research fellow at CENS. He is a former civil servant.
- TODAY/so
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