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SINGAPORE: As the country's most-wanted terrorist remains at large, the question on most Singaporeans' minds is no longer where Mas Selamat Kastari is — but when he will be caught.
Come Friday, it will exactly be one year since the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) leader outsmarted local authorities with a jailbreak designed with utmost complexity but executed with stunning simplicity.
But even as the ailing economy pushes Singaporeans' security concerns to the back burner, it appears that we are none the wiser as to the whereabouts of the seasoned fugitive, who would have celebrated his 48th birthday last month outside captivity for the first time in three years.
Yet as the clock ticks, the possibilities narrow: If Mas Selamat is still on the island, he cannot still be living off wild fruits or sleeping in canals.
The possibility that he is being harboured cannot be ruled out yet. Such a prospect would be worrying. It would suggest the existence of a sleeper cell that the Singapore authorities — who would have been keeping a close watch on Mas Selamat's family and known circle of friends — have little idea about.
But as each month passes, analysts concur that the likelihood of him having fled Singapore increases.
And it seems that Singaporeans think so too: A recent survey conducted by Weekend Xtra shows that almost 90 per cent of the 200 respondents believe that the fugitive is now overseas, a spike of about 25 percentage points as compared to a similar poll this newspaper conducted a month after Mas Selamat's escape last year.
Based on his own sources, Crime Library founder Joseph Tan, a former police officer, holds a view that is shared by some security analysts such as S Rajaratnam School of International Studies' Dr Antonio Rappa: The fugitive had left Singapore on a fishing boat within 24 hours of his escape.
Of course, there is always the possibility of him being dead. Dr Rappa said: "He might have been injured along the way during his escape ... and subsequently died overseas."
The most plausible scenario, however, suggests that Mas Selamat is alive and abroad.
But if that is so, why hasn't he — going by conventional wisdom — been boasting about his successful escape in cyberspace or via traditional media?
After all, Singapore is a well-known hard target and a jewel in the terror crown. An escape from the Republic could be used to rally, or even revive, a decimated JI.
But Mas Selamat — described by terrorism experts as a discreet evil-doer who would prefer to let his destructive deeds do the talking — is anything but conventional.
If he's alive, what next for Mas Selamat?
Alive and abroad, one thing is for sure, Mas Selamat will sooner or later try to link up with other high-profile JI leaders such as his close colleague Noordin Mohammed Top, the Malaysian national who has been dubbed "South-east Asia's most wanted terrorist".
Fronted by Noordin, the smaller but more extreme "pro-bombing" group would certainly covet Mas Selamat's "ideological commitment to violence" — as described by Dr Rohan Gunaratna, who heads the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research here.
"There are people in the network who love to work with him ... He is the most ruthless, after Hambali," said Dr Gunaratna, comparing Mas Selamat to the alleged mastermind of the 2002 Bali bombings, who is currently in United States custody at Guantanamo Bay.
However, experts concur that Mas Selamat has not made his move.
Dr Gunaratna said: "He will (first) try to link up with people whom he believes are not under the watch of the governments of Indonesia and Malaysia."
But with many of its leaders captured or slain, training camps in the region destroyed, and in the absence of a safe haven, JI members have had no choice but to operate under a darker cloak.
In fact, one view is that the dearth of news on Mas Selamat's whereabouts could be further evidence of the JI's weakening. "The silence could also mark the beginning of the end of the old network," Dr Rappa said.
But the JI is also evolving.
Boston-based Associate Professor Zachary Abuza, a South-east Asian expert, wrote in the latest Middle East Quarterly on the gradual morphing of the JI network into the what he described as the "Hezbollah model", alluding to the Lebanese terrorist group.
"Most of the group's activities are overt charitable work and provision of social services even as a component of the organisation clandestinely pursues terrorism," he said, noting that such activities have not made the Hezbollah "any less violent".
Could Mas Selamat then galvanise the group?
"Galvanise is too strong a word but he certainly would give hope to other terrorists, especially those who are self-radicalised," said Dr Rappa.
And while he is a willing foot soldier, Mas Selamat — who took over in 1999 from Ibrahim Maidin as the leader of the Singapore JI cell — does not wield significant leadership in JI's regional hierarchy.
But this is where the authorities, and even the media, could unwittingly play into the terrorists' hands.
A high-profile pursuit of Mas Selamat could end up giving the man "an image, which they might later on find it difficult to destroy", Chennai-based Institute For Topical Studies director B Raman wrote in an academic journal last year.
What about the bounty?
As regional security agencies have their hands full staving off the terrorist threat on all fronts, one of the best hopes of recapturing Mas Selamat may now hinge on the lure of the million-dollar bounty offered by two unidentified businessmen here, analysts say.
And at a time when money woes have driven many to the brink, the pot of gold offered for Mas Selamat's capture has taken on a greater lustre.
Nonetheless, this will take time.
Bounties on terrorists have had mixed results. Said Dr Gunaratna: "The US has been aggressively hunting for (Al Qaeda chief) Osama Bin Laden since August 1998 ... the most powerful nation in the world has been looking for one man, for 10 years."
Ultimately, for Mas Selamat to continue his game of cat-and-mouse with the authorities and intelligence agencies, he has to surround himself with a core group of people he trusts.
Experts believe he will almost certainly attempt to make contact with friends or family abroad, perhaps even his son reported to be studying at a madrasah in Central Java.
This is when someone might squeal on him, the authorities might get lucky, or he might just slip up.
After all, he was arrested twice before for using fake travel documents.
Wherever Mas Selamat is right now, the million-dollar bounty has given him more reason to watch his back.
- TODAY/so
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