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TAIPEI : After the conviction of Taiwan former president Chen Shui-bian, the island is now focused on September 25, when his detention order by the District Court expires and the High Court will decide whether to release him on bail.
Although Chen has slammed the case as political persecution, many Taiwanese agree that his influence has been severely undermined by the conviction.
Throughout the trial, Chen had alleged that the case was a political vendetta, claiming that Beijing wanted to punish him for his provocation during his office. But most analysts disagree with that.
Dr George Tsai, The Sun Yat-sen Institute for Globalization Studies, said: "His strategy is to surrender the first trial, and focus his effort on the appeal. There is a saying in Taiwan that if you are sentenced at the first hearing, you might expect a lighter penalty at the second hearing, and a total acquittal eventually.
But that is unlikely to happen in Chen's case. Even if he escapes punishment for the state-fund case, it is still hard to escape from the corruption and the money laundering charges."
As the first president to emerge from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Chen used to be known as "the son of Taiwan" for his humble background.
But since his indictment, his political allies have distanced themselves, while the DPP also tried to minimise the political fallout, urging Chen to take the political responsibility.
Dr Tsai said: "Chen's cases have hurt his supporters greatly. But the DPP is wary of cutting ties with him because there are still a group of ardent supporters on his side. The party could only argue about his human rights, especially the long detention. But they could not defend the corruption and bribery charges against him."
With the 3-in-1 elections in December, Chen's conviction is likely to be good news for President Ma Ying-jeou, who has just survived a sharp fall in his popularity over his government's handling of a typhoon last month.
Dr Tsai said: "Ma handled the typhoon disaster poorly. If the elections were held at the end of August, I expect the KMT to lose. But with the cabinet reshuffle and typhoon re-construction on track, Chen's case and the Dalai Lama's visit has again reminded people of the DPP's crafty nature. Those who do not like Ma will also not turn to the DPP. So, it is not (difficult) to win the elections."
Media reports said prosecutors will send Chen's sentencing report to Switzerland, to request for the return of funds frozen by Swiss authorities.
Some analysts said Chen may be trying to angle for a presidential pardon, in return for the money stashed overseas. But it is uncertain if the former leader will accept such an option, as it would spell the end of his political future. - CNA/ms
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