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SINGAPORE: The global semiconductor industry has been enjoying a pick-up in business since the second quarter, helping to lead the worldwide economic recovery. Industry players said it is blue skies ahead, at least for the next six months or so.
At the start of the year, analysts had thought 2009 revenues for the global semiconductor industry would fall 20 per cent. But thanks to a strong rebound in the second half of the year, they now expect full-year revenue to slip by just 11 per cent to US$220 billion.
Worldwide October sales have more than doubled since February when the industry hit its bottom. Next year, analysts said the industry should post a 10 to 12 per cent growth in sales.
SEMI, the global industry association serving the manufacturing supply chains for the microelectronic and display industries, held a conference for its Singapore-based members on Friday to take stock of the global economic situation and to share its outlook for the industry.
SEMI's senior manager of industry research and statistics, Clark Tseng, said the main drivers of growth next year will be the PC and handset markets, which will also enjoy a rise in average selling prices (ASP).
He said: "It looks like the PC market is recovering quite fast because of Netbook applications and Windows 7. We see pretty strong shipment from the PC supply chain. And for handsets, we think that the smartphone handsets and some of the high-end handsets will also drive shipments and the ASP as well."
But Mr Tseng said this outlook is only clear for the first half of 2010. What will happen in the second half is anybody's guess for now, as the current economic recovery is still in its early stages.
SEMI's president, Terry Tsao, said one way for semiconductor firms to beat the unexpected is to consolidate.
He said: "The market has become more and more competitive, and advanced manufacturing technology has more entry barriers – either from the technology side or from capital investment.
"That will be the big trend. Even if the vendor doesn't want to, I think the future trend is for more consolidation or at the very basic, more cooperation."
Mr Tsao added that semiconductor firms should also try to diversify their business to weather future downturns better. For example, he said, semiconductor manufacturers could look into producing solar panels or flat panels for TV screens.
- CNA/so
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