Singapore's NODX falls 3.4% on-year in Nov, missing forecast
By Pamela Almeda, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 17 December 2007 1323 hrs

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SINGAPORE: Singapore's main exports came in weaker than expected in November.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by 3.4 per cent compared to a year ago, to S$14.6 billion against expectations for an increase.

Numbers from electronic exports remained weak while pharmaceuticals exports fell by 21.5 per cent.

Compared to October, exports fell a seasonally-adjusted rate of six per cent, the biggest drop in seven months.

The electronics sector booked its tenth straight monthly decline in exports, with a dip of 8.2 per cent on-year. That helped push the headline NODX figure into a decline, missing analysts’ forecasts.

Market watchers said they see further uncertainty ahead.

"We were actually expecting some sort of gradual recovery since the beginning of this year, but I think it's taking longer than expected to materialise. And I think going forward, there's going to be more uncertainty because of the downturn in the global growth cycle," said UOB Group’s economist Ho Woei Chen.

Exports of integrated circuits, disk drives, telecom equipments and computer parts dropped compared to October. Non-electronics exports remained flat overall, inching upwards by just 0.2 per cent.

The pharmaceutical sector, however, saw a sharp drop, falling some 21.5 per cent over the same period a year ago.

Ho said: "The main culprit for this month is actually the pharmaceutical sector, which was down more than 20 per cent on-year in November. And I will attribute part of the reason to the high base last year.

"In November 2006, the pharmaceutical export was... around 74 per cent on-year. And because of this high base, it's more difficult for this year's November NODX to outperform the market's expectations."

In terms of markets, exports to Europe dipped 31.5 per cent, but exports to the United States managed to pull back from declines in the previous two months to go up by 0.5 per cent.

"The only comfort that we probably got in the month itself was the US market actually picked up slightly (by) 0.5 per cent... due to stronger demand for consumer electronics, more than 300 per cent up for the month itself," said Alvin Liew, global research economist at Standard Chartered.

With the latest numbers, economists said they are looking at a 3-3.5 per cent increase in NODX for the whole year.

Singapore's monthly trade figures are closely-watched because the economy is heavily-dependent on trade. - CNA/ac