SINGAPORE: Singapore's programme on risk assessment and horizon scanning now has an active outreach programme with the three local universities.

Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security, Professor S Jayakumar, said on Monday that this has helped expose the country's next generation students to strategic anticipation and planning.

The Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Programme (RAHS) has been used by university students to analyse the supply chain for agricultural commodities at the Singapore Management University (SMU), the Asian financial crisis at the National University of Singapore (NUS), and global food and multi-lateral security issues at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU).

Speaking at a symposium in Singapore, Professor Jayakumar noted that the programme was useful not just in the traditional security domains.

It has also helped a networked government to think systematically about issues involving economic and financial conditions.

Professor Jayakumar said: "More recently, we have also been reminded of how uncertain and inter-connected the world is today by issues such as global warming, the sub-prime mortgage crisis, rising oil and commodities prices, food shortages and collapse of financial institutions.

"Another important element is that for RAHS to work well, collaboration is critical. Agencies cannot be working in silos and examining issues in a compartmentalised way. RAHS requires horizontal collaboration and sharing of information across agencies."

Professor Jayakumar cited as an example, the study on strategic early warning for the aviation domain where 15 agencies from the aviation security community used RAHS to build models and analyse possible scenarios of threat.

The inputs from the various agencies, he said, ensured that the models and analyses reflected the multi-faceted and complex nature of the issue.

"The way we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds," stressed Professor Jayakumar, who also pointed out that the future is not a straightforward extrapolation of simple, single-domain trends.

"A healthy diversity can only be assured when horizon scanning agencies from different countries cooperate in their sensemaking efforts."

The two-day symposium to raise awareness of the importance of risk assessment and horizon scanning to address challenges in an increasingly complex and uncertain environment is being attended by security practitioners, academics, technologists and futurists.

Organised by the National Security Coordination Secretariat (NSCS), the Centre of Excellence for National Security (CENS) at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and the Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA), the theme for the second such symposium is "Realising the Vision: Challenges and Solutions".

- CNA/yb