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SINGAPORE : Cross-strait tension between China and Taiwan has eased since the election victory of President-elect Ma Ying-jeou on March 22. But while economic and cultural ties between the two sides are expected to improve, Taiwan is unlikely to enjoy more international space over the next four years.
Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew made this point during an interview with Taiwan's Central News Agency.
Mr Lee pointed out that Beijing will be wary of conceding more international space, as this can be exploited should a pro-independence president come to power again.
"Before former president Lee Teng-hui shifted Taiwan's position from eventual reunification to the "two countries theory", Beijing was quite relaxed. They even agreed to Taiwan joining APEC as an economic unit, together with Hong Kong," said Mr Lee.
"(But) Beijing became wary and suspicious after former president Lee spoke to the Japanese writer about leading Taiwan to the "promised land" and he as 'Moses'," added Mr Lee.
While Mr Ma's position of "no independence, no reunification, no use of force" has eased and improved the cross-strait situation, he has not reaffirmed the Kuomintang's original position of eventual reunification, noted Mr Lee.
Mr Ma campaigned for better economic ties with the mainland in the March presidential election race.
His platform of easing restrictions on mainland tourists visiting Taiwan, promoting direct cross-strait flights, and focusing on pragmatic economic issues helped him win a landslide victory, with more than 58 percent of the votes.
Although Mr Ma criticised Beijing during his campaign, calling Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao "arrogant and ignorant", Beijing was ready to overlook that.
About three weeks after polling day, Beijing welcomed Vice President-elect Vincent Siew to the Boao conference on Hainan island.
Mr Siew met Chinese President Hu Jintao on the sidelines of the conference, and the Taiwanese leader came away with a positive outlook on cross-strait ties.
"In Boao, President Hu Jin-tao used "four continuations" - agreeing to continue to promote cross-strait economic, cultural and other cooperation; continue promoting direct flights and PRC tourism to Taiwan; continue caring for and safeguarding the appropriate rights of the Taiwanese people; and continue to encourage the resumption of cross-strait negotiations," noted Mr Lee.
He added that Beijing will be forthcoming on the Three Links (postal, transportation and trade links between mainland China and Taiwan), tourism, as well as facilitating businessmen travelling between the two sides.
But while Beijing is expressing goodwill towards the island, Mr Lee cautioned that Taiwanese should not be misled into thinking that their will alone will decide the fate of the island - especially on the issue of reunification or independence.
Mr Lee said, "The wishes of the people of Taiwan will not be decisive on the issue of reunification. The decisive factors are the economic and military strength & determination of China and America.
"Are Americans prepared to back Taiwan if it goes for independence? The US government has made it clear that they will only support the status quo of the ROC - no independence and no reunification by force."
He pointed out that China's economy has been growing at 9-12 percent yearly, and it is expected to grow at least 8 percent annually for the next decade or two.
By that time, said Mr Lee, China's military capabilities will make it costly for the United States to intervene in any cross-strait conflict.
While China is building up its forces primarily to deter any intervention by America or Japan, China does not want to attack and inflict damage on Taiwan.
"Through peaceful development of China's economy, and improvements in both civilian and military technology, China can deter any American aircraft carrier group from sailing near Taiwan in a crisis," said Mr Lee.
But he warned that if Taiwan's pro-independence leaders make a dash for it, China will attack.
As for Taiwan's desire to participate in the ASEAN dialogue, Mr Lee said it will be difficult, as "such dialogues discuss political and security matters besides economic matters. There will not be a consensus among the 10 ASEAN members to have an ASEAN-Taiwan dialogue."
Instead, Mr Lee advised Taipei to use its status in the World Trade Organisation to negotiate trade and investment agreements with as many of the ASEAN member countries as possible.
But like Taiwan's relationship with Singapore, Taipei should avoid bringing politics into the relationship.
"So long as you maintain stable and friendly relations with China - increasing co-operation in trade, investments and tourism - Singapore and Taiwan can also increase co-operation in trade and investments and tourism," said MM Lee.
Replying to a question on what Taiwan can learn from Singapore, Mr Lee said the island's political debates should focus on promoting and generating economic growth, and the well-being of its people.
"With new President-elect Ma Ying-jeou, I hope Taiwan's intra-party politics will be about promoting trade, investments and economic opportunities, not more sterile arguments over independence, or separateness from the mainland, and redefining Taiwan's history, identity and language," said Mr Lee. - CNA /ls
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