Khaw says communal spread of H1N1 likely to happen soon
By Satish Cheney, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 31 May 2009 2220 hrs

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SINGAPORE : Singapore has confirmed its fifth case of the Influenza A (H1N1) flu virus.

The patient is a 22-year-old Singaporean woman who had travelled to the US from May 13 to 28.

Some 20 contacts, including five family members and 15 flight passengers, have been identified for home quarantine via contact tracing.

But the Health Ministry has so far managed to contact only four of the 15 passengers.

The Ministry has alerted the World Health Organisation (WHO) on all the close contacts who are out of the country. In addition, all available information on connecting flights has been given to WHO's relevant authority for follow up action. Contact particulars have also been provided to Singapore's Immigration and Checkpoints Authority to notify the Ministry should they turn up at the border checkpoints.

Five other passengers are known to be outside Singapore.

Meanwhile Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan has said that while the H1N1 strain remains relatively mild, the communal spread of the virus is likely to happen soon.

Expect more H1N1 cases, says Mr Khaw. It is just a matter of time before the communal spread of the virus will take place, as patients would have had contact with numerous people in the community.

Mr Khaw said: "As some experts in WHO put it, one-third of mankind will be infected over the next two years. One-third of mankind in Singapore means one million people will be down with it."

But authorities said this is not a numbers game and the bigger worry is if the strain becomes more virulent.

H1N1 carriers without symptoms are also a worry.

At the moment, Singapore scientists are keeping tabs on the virus to check if it evolves and mutates into something more dangerous.

Another concern is the availability of hospital beds.

Mr Khaw said: "If every H1N1 patient is to be hospitalised as a rule when it is not necessary, then you will be (taking) up a lot of hospital beds, when I have to look after cancer patients, heart patients...and so on.

"At the moment, when the numbers are small we can afford to go all out and hunt every contact, but it is a matter of time when there are many more cases, then we no longer can play this, the way we have been doing the last few days.

"So, the important part of health care becomes looking for people who are high risk - pregnant, those who have asthma and other illnesses."

Mr Khaw added that the alert level will not be raised to Orange based on the number of cases alone, but on factors such as changes to the virulence and evolution of the virus.

As of Sunday, the Ministry has served 82 Home Quarantine Orders (HQOs) to close contacts of the five confirmed cases. 68 others who have been in close contact with the affected patients are already out of the country. The Ministry has also lined up other facilities for quarantine purposes, if needed.

And as the school holidays have already started, many would be planning vacations overseas. Mr Khaw said Singaporeans should really try and avoid going to North America, if they can do so.

Meanwhile, all five H1N1 patients remain stable. Three have been discharged but the first H1N1 case is still undergoing treatment in hospital. - CNA/ms