INDONESIA: Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's popularity rating has dived to its lowest level since he took office two and a half years ago.

According to the latest poll by the Indonesian Survey Institute, the decline is mainly due to his inability to lift the country's struggling economy.

Analysts predict it will be an uphill task for President Yudhoyono to seek re-election in 2009.

Just last December, President Yudhoyono's popularity was at a high of 67 percent.

This was despite a year of economic hardship for Indonesians due to a spike in oil prices, which led to a rise in prices for basic necessities.

Three months on, the Indonesian public's confidence in the president dived to an all-time low of 49 percent – the first time it has dropped below the halfway mark.

Dr HS Dhillon, Political Economist, said: "I don't think this comes as a surprise to him either. The way I see it, it's very timely for him because 20 April will be the exact mid-term. So if he's going to save this term then he better do something about it."

The survey indicated the main trigger for the plummeting confidence is the country's economic situation, which voters say is worse than last year’s.

Sukardi Ranarkit, Political Analyst, said: "The price of rice, for instance, increased almost 100 percent – from Rp400 to Rp600 per kg. This is very tough for the people. In Indonesia, rice is the most important factor. Once the government cannot control the price of rice, its image will decrease."

Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators are grim.

There are some 11 million people without jobs and another 2.5 million are expected to join their ranks this year.

Some 90 million Indonesians live below the poverty line of US$2 a day.

With a national growth rate of just 5.5 percent last year, things are not looking up for Yudhoyono whose election promises were to provide jobs and alleviate poverty in the country.

Dr Dhillon said: "The sine qua non to all these are investment. If investment is declining, how do you expect to achieve any of that?"

The Indonesian government has introduced a number of measures to improve the investment climate and is expected to amend its tax laws this year to make the country more attractive to investors.

But time is running out for the president.

Although he officially has until the end of his term in 2009 to introduce meaningful changes, his administration actually only has a year to govern effectively.

Beginning March next year, the political temperature in Jakarta is expected to soar when political parties start registering their candidates for parliamentary elections.

Still, analysts believe Yudhoyono has a chance at getting re-elected for a second term.

Dr Dhillon said: "Indonesians have been through very hard times. They have managed to pull through hard times. But they have always done that under a leadership that is capable; that they feel empathises with them. And this is a very important ingredient that he can now instil through his Cabinet within the next few weeks."


- CNA/so